Friday Morning Sept 25. 2009
Once again, the market squeezed out weather premium overnight, then put it back in today. Currently bean are up about 8 to ten cents, corn is up 1 to 3 cents and wheat, the weak sister today, is under some profit taking pressure, down about 5 cents…
It looks like we may have some evening up of the corn/wheat vs bean spreads today, with funds apparently selling wheat against longs in the beans.
In any event, Nov beans still are hemmed in at the top of the trade range around 931 with a low at 916.. the 925 area, *half way for the day’s trading range’ is a level to watch for exit and entry of your positions…
Dec corn has some decent support at the 34 level… and the wheat looks poised to test support around the 465-460 level.. A lower close today in the wheat would be technically neutral, although the feeling was amongst the bulls that a settlement above the 475 level would have been most desirable…
Currently its 1015 am, and it looks as if the morning move is over.. look for sideways trade through the 1100 am trade, as the market anticipated the afternoon weather forecast. any mention of putting in a new frost warning at this point would be very bullish and on a Friday, could spell doom for any committed bears….
On the stock index front, we are basically unchanged in the wake of mixed economic numbers today. An unexpected weakness in durable goods orders, a ‘tepid’ new housing sales figure,and seem to weigh heavier than expected even in the light of a consumer sentiment figure which showed a mild increase in consumer confidence…
Bottom line is there is still plenty of bearishness out there.. This is what market typically does though, climbing a wall of worry.. it will be interesting to see what happens in October, and whether or not we can break above and have a sustained move in the Dow above 10000 level…
I saw a column today from Marc Faber again on CNBC predicting that in 5 or 10 years the real debacle awaits the US… he suggests at least 50 percent of your investment in emerging markets and out of the U.S. Interesting food for thought for the perma-bears.. his newsletter is called doom, gloom, and boom… so he is predicting the melt-down in the US as opening opportunity in emerging markets..
On a technical note, the S&P 500 has rallied 58 percent from its March lows… close enough for a Fibonacci 62 percent bounce to make me pause, and consider there might be a correction in this bounce looming out there…