Thursday the 24th.
Grains opened lower with the crude, then we rallied 15 cents of the lows, gold down 18 bucks, silver down 60 cents, US dollar higher…. Crude ended the day on its heels. We have continued reports of a monster crop in the field for the corn.
For the beans… it seems like every night they take out the weather premium, then in the morning put it back in, rallying through the day… Long term fundamentally it looks like ultimately lower prices are coming in corn and beans, while the wheat looks like it has technical ability to close above the 484 level, confirming that there might be a bottom in place for the week.
We continue to bounce off the 903 904 level, rallying to the 930 area… kind of an interesting trading range…It feels like if we can break that 900 level, we may quickly break down to a nice Fibonacci level around 884.
It appears we are going to continue to move, overnight at least, with the crude action…
As far as the stock market indexes, long term, we have rallied almost 3000 points from our March lows in the Dow down around 6500… The all important 10,000 level is acting like the magnet it always does… However, we continue to have market players fretting about October… No one wants to get caught long in another big flush out, which make me personally think that a big flush out won’t occur, and we most likely will trade sideways to slightly higher through the rest of the year.
Call me a contrarian, but today I heard, on of all places, National Public Radio, a commentator lamenting the woes of October and the potential for ‘the other shoe to drop’ in the market, with another round of panic selling, spurred on this time by ‘fill in the blank’ bad news….
That to me, makes me think that October will be ok… Generally the media reflects the emotion of the people. People are still freaked out, and therefore, my call is that the market will continue to climb the wall of worry….
Of course we will all be watching crude oil for a portend of where the next trend will be… When I saw the crude drop 3 bucks to day, i almost could have guaranteed it, because yesterday I filled up my gas tank…:) Its not scientific, but I swear whenever I fill up, the next day the crude drops a chunk just to spite me personally…:)
We continue to keep an eye on ‘hurricane potential’ down in the Gulf… Lord knows Cnn would like to see another Katrina, if for no other reason to have President Obama have a stellar response so they could do a 3 month compare/and contrast the most excellent one’s performance vs. W’s handling of Katrina. I personally am not looking forward to repeated sound bites of W saying ‘Brownie’s doing a heck of a job”… over and over again…
That being said, a big nasty Cat 4 or 5 storm would certainly jack up gasoline futures, if only because it will most likely shut down refinery capacity in the event its a very large storm…
Levels to watch in the beans tomorrow, I think are the 932-35 level and the 901 to 899 level… moving through either of those levels could open up pressure to continue in with a flush through what ever level the market chooses to explore. It is Friday, end of the week… look for the market to push a move to define the weekly charts.
….
CER