12,228 on October 27th, 12,194 October 28th, 12,203 on November 14th, 12,178 last Friday, 12,183 today…5 trading days over the past 6 weeks. This is high tick that extends back to August 1st… So we are sitting at a 4 month high and can’t get through.
I am not sure what this means. Quite frankly we could pop up, spark a short covering rally and then hit the wall at 12,675 and then careen lower, or we could remain in the 1,000 point trading range and drift back down to 11,200…
At this time of the year, we tend to drift higher.
The trade is thin. Most traders up money have shut down for the year. The traders still trading are always willing sellers. If there is no follow through on the sales, however, they typically race each other out and cause spike up rallies.
In general, over 23 years, December more often than not was a good month to trade sparingly.
I’d stay with that plan.
Sell this 12,200 level. But be wary of a short covering rally that could knock the socks off the bear speculators.
CER