Fortunately, my shorts in beans which were profits remained profits even on this bounce. That’s why I use stops.
As for Corn, CH, old crop has been on a nice bounce. We are flirting with the 100 day moving average, a big technical level. 6.50 will be a bump in the road on a rally which will be fueled by short covering in the wheat.
There’s plenty of wheat, but Europe is worried about cold, Russian Exports, etc. etc.
Australia has another huge crop on hand.
Worldwide carry out is large and fundamentally negative. That being said, the funds are short 65K contracts of wheat. If they flip, no one is there to sell it to them at these levels, and they will be chasing themselves in a game of chicken/musical chairs. March corn has to get above 662 to really interest me.
SH beans have to get above 1234 to interest me.
One warning and one reason I am buying corn puts this morning and looking to sell rallies today: The Wall St. Journal has a front page article in Business section touting corn’s rebound.
Rule number one I have always followed. Hold your nose, close your eyes and fade the popular media. More often than not its a good trade to fade their opinion or recommendation, at least for the first 3 or so days after an article.
Try it and see. Corn is at 648 3/4. I am going to sell CH at 6.55 with a buy stop above.
That is all.
CER