After initially looking like a good level to buy in the Dow futures, at 12650-12,550, The market has continued to leak. No news stories, continued worries about Europe, the whole JP Morgan debacle, just took the steam off the stocks. The biggest story has been Facebook, and as of this writing, if you bought today, you are already down money. Obviously, if you were an employee and had a bunch of paper handed to you today, you are still way, way ahead of the game..
Honestly, I’d be short here, with a trailing buy stop above. Once the 12,550 level did not hold, I exited my longs and had shorts established on stops. As the market breaks, I will continue to add to shorts. Of course, like always, I will have buy stops above to manage the position. Staying disciplined is the only thing that will protect you on losing trades. Winners are easy to handle. Its getting out of losers while preserving capital that is the hard part of speculating. If you have any ego issues at all, the market will find them and expose them.
Position management is 80 percent of the equation. The other 40 percent is trade selection.
I’d be looking to take profits on wheat and corn after the week we had. WN ran into resistance at 7.00 here and CZ will have a wall of sales up at 5.50.
New Crop Beans will dance around 13.00. Hindsight being 2020, i wish i would have sold a lot more beans at 13.95 🙂
I’d defend the 13.00 level in SX, though. initiating shorts around this level.
Have a good weekend.
CER