Just yesterday I wrote that we might be in for a break Dow the 12650..We got down to 12,700. Watching CNBC now, after a 96 point bounce back from 17000, they are wiping their brows and fanning themselves. Are you serious? This passes for thoughtful analysis? This is a break i caught with a short position. I covered that short and bought out of the money calls at 13,000 just as a matter of principal.
If they are getting bearish after a correction in the stocks indexes, is probably a good time to start heading upstream against the herd.
Beans, Corn and Wheat settled on their asses today. My feeling is SX will trade to 12.50, CZ will trade to 4.75 and WN will drift down to 5.25. I don’t think tomorrow’s USDA will be that surprising. I am betting it will be a big yawn to slightly bullish. That’s when we will just continue to bleed out.
I bought july 1440-1640 call spreads for 36 cents. That’s a spec getting long in the face of the 80 cent correction we’ve had.
Wheat and Corn, in my opinion, have not seen their lows yet. The fear has not reached the perma-bulls yet, but it may be festering there.
I continue to believe that cattle are oversold. They should benefit, but I’d like to see June fat up above 119.
That is all.
CER