Its 11AM in Chicago. Corn down 8 but it had been down 23 earlier. Wheat down 13 but it had been down 23 as well. Beans down 33, after being down 40 earlier.
May get a rally to sell here today. Nothing has changed from Friday’s USDA. I’d still be looking to sell rallies and buy dips. Technically, CZ put in a key reversal Friday. All this means is that it spiked to a new all time high, then collapsed, suggesting a blow off top. Every doctor, dentist and cab driver who bought the end of the rally in the past 2 weeks are now looking for a rally to save them. The day they sell will be the near term bottom and a break to buy.
Fundamentally, we are looking at Bean rationing yet to come, however, SX is still 80 cents away from its old highs. Out of all the numbers Friday, Bean carry out was the most bullish. Yet today we sit 33 cents lower and 1668 high Friday looks to be a distant peak. Today’s low is 16.04. and we are at 16.09 currently.
A perfect case of how, if you digested the number and saw it was bullish and got long, you still would have lost money. Over time we may return to those highs. Right now, the market is telling you the rally is too old and there is some pain coming for stubborn or weak longs.
Watching the Dow Futures, We are down 90 points in Sept. trading at 13.080. I am still comfortable being short here between 13,100 and 13,200. Technically, the S&P futures is hitting resistance at 1400.
This week should be interesting. We will begin the next 10 weeks of political grenade throwing. I don’t see how that could be bullish. But, that’s just my opinion. If you think I am mistaken, then here’s your opportunity to call your broker and get loaded up on the long side.
CER