Expectations were for 100K new non-farm payrolls jobs. We got 163K a nice surprise. Looks like people were betting on a bearish number, so you had a spike in the Dow.
High in futures still just 13080. low 12,813 for a 200 point trading range, currently up 222 pts.
In my opinion, I’d be a seller between 13,100 and 13,200 because its the top of the resistance of the trading rang. Combine that with the ecstasy coming through from the financial media and I think this is a low risk trade.
Its getting late in the day for grains. Buy a CZ 7.50 put for 36 cents.
That is all.
As always, I have stop limits on if you are trading futures.
As always, if you think I am wrong, then do the opposite.
CER
Will you take additional actions ahead of the Aug10th USDA forecast ?
This morning beans have already been 50 cents lower today . If you didn’t buy the 15.00 SX puts last week. If we continue to get good rains and lower temps, that will help bean yield.
I’d be short in front of Friday. The area I want to avoid will be being short if CZ manages a setlement above 8.20 or if SX can managae a settlement above 16.50
Hope that helps. What ever you do, make sure you have limited risk in front of Friday’s number. USDA numbers are always a coin flip.
At the end of the day, one thing is constant. The Federal Government has an interest in keeping food prices low. Hence, I would be looking for moves to keep “food inflation” to a limit. Crop reports give them a venue to “adjust” the numbers accordingly.
CER