If we don’t get a deal by Xmas on the fiscal cliff, I’d rather be short than long. We took decent profits on the last break down. Granted we never got the 13,000 level, but we may sometime soon if we keep grinding here.
1) Remember this is December and trade is thin.
2) Remember to not get married to a position. Its more important to make money than have your ego stroked by being correct.
3) Trade management and management of losses is the key to prospering in the markets.
That being said, I’d be looking to sell rallies in Dow Futures. You must have a buy stop above protecting you in the event that the storm clears and suddenly Washington cuts a deal.
Sell Dec futures against 13,375 which is the recent high.
As for the grains, if you read my letter yesterday, I was pretty bearish. The 7.00 level did not hold in CH. The 8.01 level did not hold in the wheat. The 14.34 level did not hold.
All of these failures resulted in my sell stops getting filled. Very often i use stops to initiate positions, especially when those stops might get filled when I am asleep. Luckily, my sell stops got triggered last night.
I put the levels in the email yesterday. They were triggered last night.
Corn is 15 cents lower at 6.87
Wheat is 19 cents lower, 7.86
Beans are 23 cents lower.but had been down 30, almost to 14.00 with a low so far at 14.02
This is a gift. I don’t have a big package on by any means.
There are 4 full trading days left in 2012.
China cancelled a bunch of beans again, over 505 million tons of previous sales.
I am taking some profits on 1/3, and putting in buy stops to protect profits.
Better to be lucky than good. This was certainly the case today.
CER