Range Bound March Wheat has 9.00 in the gunsights

Yes, Egypt tendered wheat from the US over the weekend. In general, US wheat was 20 to 40 bucks a ton cheaper than that available in the Black Sea.  March Wheat Has been in a Range bounded by 845 on the bottom with resistance at 930 on top going all the way back to June.  That’s 5 months of range trade.  The mid point of the trade is 8.87.  On Friday we rolled down to the 8.65 level.  I see no reason why we don’t run back up to 887 1/2 or 897 1/2.  

Lets move to March Corn.  March corn has a range with support near 712.  Resistance above at 7.75 and then 8.00   So we’re looking at a 63 to 83 cent trading range.  Between July 30 and September 10th, CH spent some time  around 8.12.  with a spike up to the 8.40 area.      For the last 8 weeks,  we have been mired plus or minus 10 cents over 7.50.

March Beans have good support at 13.75.. We rallied 75 cents from testing that level on November 16th.    If beans have another leg in this rally,  i like 14.81 and then 15.34 as upside targets.  Today we are at 14.50. 

These are all March Futures prices for the grains.  I believe the November lows, punctuated by 5 month lows in beans and 4 month lows in wheat set the bar for the lows for the next few months.

Positive economic news from Chinese PMI.  First sale of wheat to Egypt shows that the FSU might finally be out of grain for export, are both bullish fundamentals.

The bugaboo could be the fiscal cliff drama in Washington.  Watching the talking heads yesterday,  it seems like there might be a taste on both sides to actually go over the cliff for a few weeks, and then continue the blame game. Wonder’s never cease.

CER

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