Corn is 86 % planted vs. 99 last year. We are 4% off average of 90 % for this time of year. Last year’s 99% was more of an outlier.
Bottom line: I don’t see how this is bullish. 4% behind average planting rate? Seriously?
One interesting thing a marketer that every one follows today lifted his short futures positions. That should go a long way towards easing higher prices.
CZ13 did fill the gap at 52 1/2. However, we did not settle above it. I have 5.64, then 5.75 then 5.88 as upsides, if they really get after it on the bull side. We did have a gap higher day today, which is a sign of strength, but I have seen gaps like this filled in short order.
I can not get bullish CZ until we settle above 55. If that happens, then I flip and look for a rally up to 84-88. 88 is the 50% retracement for the life of contract from the high to the low.
Pull up a weekly chart and you’ll see the same thing. 6.07 would be a 62% retracement for those true blue bulls.
I would remain short corn until we settle above 52 1/2. Not a trade, a settlement. 91/2 inches of rain in iowa is surprising. If they start having to re plant, then maybe i’d be more friendly. Til I see that, I just think this is a rally in a bear market.
Wheat looks pathetic. It can not hold a rally to save its life. This has been the story all year, honestly.
Beans, : Old crop looks like the money flow is trying to get long SN vs. 14.75.
I’d be long beans short corn and wheat.
New crop beans had a nice rally, 13.00 is a level for SX I would like to sell if we get there.
That’s a bout it.
Give me a higher settlement in CZ and I’ll flip.
CER