Recap of positions: Short CZ at 5.36 with a stop if we settle above 52 1/2.
Short SN at 14.98 entered today on a stop. I won’t cover that for a while, however I moved buy stop down to 14.88.
The Dow, I remain friendly. This break to 15200 in the YMM looks like a natural pause in the rally. I think a settlement above 15.500 opens door to 16,000 print.
Its a creeping, grinding rally. Since November 16, over the past 6 months, we have picked up 3,000 points.
For a downside play, I’d have cheap 14000 puts on or 13,500 puts on to catch any flash crash. Other than that, when you are long and its going higher, step back and fold your arms.
For a fresh speculative trade, look at selling rallies in cattle, both fat and live. every time it has tried to mount a rebound, its been crushed. So I’d be selling rallies, but with tight stops once the sale has been initiated. August fat cattle traded close to 145. I’d be a seller at 145.50 up to 146.50 with a buy stop at 147.40.
In gold, June has not been able to take out 1400 for the last 10 days to the upside. Sell rallies against that level. A break down to 1340 would be a good buy, but with an exit below 1322.00
Finally, New Crop Beans. Be short between 1245 and 1262. Scale in sales. Cover shorts on a settlement above 12.75. For a short term play, you might want to be a little long, but with the upside target of 12.74 as a hard sale.
Have a great long weekend. Back at it on Tuesday.
CER