At least 3 well followed analysts are bullish beans in the wake of not enough rain over the long weekend. That alone gives me pause. Secondly, we were 50 cents higher last night and we couldn’t take out the Sep 12, 2012 high again at 09 3/4? We couldn’t do it last week and then promptly sold off. Today’s high is 08 1/2…. Based on that action and the fact that 1) the funds are still long 100K contracts 2) advisory services are net bullish beans and 3) we have not had a huge uptick in exports yet, just makes me wonder if this is not a” buy the rumor-sell the fact” rally.
No one caveat… if we settle above 14.09 1/2 we should pop up to 14.25 and then 14.50. I am not calling at definitive top, because I have traded beans since 1989 and have learned what happens when you tie your pocket book to tightly to your position.
All I am saying, is that this looks suspiciously toppy. And b/c of that, as scary as it is, I’d want to be a seller at 14.00 to 1409 every time until the market says other wise. Make sure you have your hand on the rip cord, in case we really explode, but for now, I’d sell against this 1409 level.
Good trading.
CER
