The contract high for Dow Sep Futures was 17,085. Friday’s low was 16370. That low took out the May 22nd low by 60 ticks.
A 715 point break from the high to Friday’s low pencils out to a 4.2 % pull back. If you read my last few entries, I wanted to be a buyer at a 5% break. That would have been an 854 point break, or 16231.
For Sep S&P futures, the high was 1985. A 5% correction would take us down 99.25 handles. A 10% would take us down 198.5.
Friday’s low was 75 handles off the high, or 3.7%.
5% downside pencils out to 1885
10% downside pencils out to 1787/
I still think we will eventually get that print, but it might be later in the month. What I think, however, is secondary. We are entering August. A lot of people are out of the game, sitting at the beach.
That gives us choppy and dicey markets, with lots of opportunities to catch some decent moves.
That being said, a 50% pull back of the 715 point break brings the contract back to 16,728. I think 16500 will be big psychological resistance, however.
As always, trade at your own risk. Bull or bear, long or short use good stops for risk management.
CER