It looked like for a moment this morning we were going to bounce off the 977 level and take a run at last night’s highs at 996 half, however, right now it looks like we may be in a ten cent trading range, hanging fire until the last half hour of trade.Typically 11:30 to 12:30 CST is a bad time risk/reward to trade these grains…
A break out above or below this ten cent range could give an opportunity for an extended 8 or 10 cent move. It is Friday, the end of the week, and there may well be some evening up of positions prior to the weekend…
Technically, a break in SX below the 75 level opens up another shot to go down to the 68/69 level to try to fill that gap. We have been in this 30 cent chop fest of a range for the past several sessions, and those extremes should be fresh in your mind depending on which way the market wants to cover prior to going into the weekend.
The stock indexes have clawed back from this mornings lows after the less than stellar economic news, spiked by BOA losses, less than expected earnings from GE, GE’s scary guidance that their orders were down 20 percent, combined with a drop in consumer confidence. All in all, it seems like these indexes are holding up well in the face of the continued beat of the negative information drums… So, it seems we will climb the Wall of Worry….
My guess is that John q public will get bullish round about 12,500 in the Dow and around 1300 in the S&P… Assuming we can get there, at that point, a healthy correction would be overdue. I think with 2 weeks left in the month of October, if we can escape with out a melt down, then we will see a grind higher through the holiday’s on thin trade as people look forward to the end of 2009… But that’s just my opinion..