November beans settled 11 cents lower today at 983, Dec Corn ten cents lower at 373 and Dec Wheat 8 cents lower at 505… My earlier post today warned of choppy trade as these markets digested the large down moves which occurred during Wednesday’s night session.. All in all, there is still a Gap down at 968 which is a plump target for a bear flush…
They got within 3 cents but were unable to get the print out… That to me means its still a viable target over the next few trading sessions..
Dec Wheat will be most sensitive to any planting delays, if these stories of delays in harvesting the beans due to the wet weather hold any water long-term…
Dec Corn is still looking at a very large new crop coming in and pressuring the cash market.. A spike in demand from China or other buyers could bring a fresh round of buying, however..
At these levels, and with the Dollar still under pressure here, that remains a long term issue to watch.
The other factor to remember is that the index funds will be selling corn and wheat for the next several sessions, so the rumors lead us to believe, due to position limit changes by the CFTC…. One would think that they would be buying beans in a spread against these reductions… That certainly will impact daily volatility..
In the stock indexes, SPZ got within ear shot of the 1100 level today, with a high print at 1093.20, less than 7 handles away from that important level.. The DJZ posted a high of 10,005 today, while the cash “settled comfortable above 10000 at the 10062” level I quote a radio news show tonight, so caveat emptor.. Only someone who’s never even had a one lot on in the spoos or Dow would consider 64 ticks a comfortable level above 10,000… Alas, this is what passes for informed reporting however…
On an interesting note, both the Dow which settled at 10062.94 and the SP500 Cash market at 1096.56, just a hair away from 1100…. Strong closes, yes, but also serving as fulcrums for the rest of this month’s trade…
I feel now that 10300 is a good target in the Dow and 1150 is a good target for the bulls in the SP500… one caveat,,, Only two Friday’s ago the SPZ traded down to 1012…. that’s twelve…..
And the Dow traded down to 9350….all after the unemployment numbers came out…
One interesting idea I heard this morning, and I can’t attribute it to who ever said it or I would…. was the idea that yes, first time un employment filings were less than expected, but that’s a deceptive indicator because we have had so many months of 500K plus numbers in that statistic… AT a certain point… the number will have to get smaller because there’s no one left to lay off….. Just food for thought…
They teach you in Econ 101 that the market is a forward looking indicator.. Lets hope for this country that that is the case, and these levels in the markets are truly justified… I for one will not want to be watching the cable news shows if we have a 50 percent correction off of these recent rallies… You will see howling and moaning unlike any thing you’ve ever witnessed…And worse, for once, those pundits will be justified in their hysteria..But that’s just my opinion…
My deceased grandparents used to talk about living through the great depression..A good movie for us to all watch to get a feel for what it was like is Cinderella Man.. I’d also recommend watching Hard Times as well as the Grapes of Wrath…If the other shoe really drops in this country, we could see times like that again, unfortunately… And it won’t matter who is at the helm of the Presidency, unfortunately… This country is all about the blame game in politics… Dems will condemn Bush for ever, and Republicans will blame Obama/ et all… Bottom line, regardless of your politics, lets hope these markets stabilize for all our sakes.
Good Trading…