Today in the Grain Market we saw evening up of positions through the lunchtime hour, with corn, wheat and beans posting daily highs around 12PM CST.. we then saw a pullback through the afternoon when the market failed to continue its grind higher…
The weather for cast did not give any fresh urgency to a freeze warning, and the bad weather by and large seems to have been factored into the market over the past 7days.. Traders who decided to get bullish too late in the game, may be sadly surprised if come Monday we have a buy-the-rumor-== sell-the-fact action on Monday…
Also we are heading into the long Columbus day weekend with some traders heading out of town early…
Of Course, we should have a flurry of activity with tomorrows USDA numbers which will give us a better picture of the Supply/Demand situation..
Any surprises may, however, be short lived to the upside, because this is still shaping up to be a gigantic crop for both Beans and Corn…
CZ found its resistance at 370, WZ found its resistance at the 481 1/2 level, and SX hit the breaks at 942, at which point it fell back 8cents through the afternoon to finally settle at the 936 level.. Our next resistance in SX would looks to be around 957 level..In WZ the 485 to 592 level, and in CZ, there is still a lot of work to do to get us to the 385 to 400 Resistance band on the charts….
Its important to note that we are in the midst of Roll Over, which should be factored into every close… There is pressure from Hedgers who are liquidating long positions in SX and re establishing them in the Jan Contract or in some cases, the Nov contract for 2010… This fact can make the last 3 to 5 minutes of trade overall extremely volatile, and I would caution all but the most seasoned traders to just stay away from about 110 to 115 every day, until the roll is over..
Looking at the outside markets,,, The stock indexes are still holding up nicely for the day. Some better news in first time filings, as well as some better than expected earnings from some of the larger retail stores, gave bulls comfort…
We seem poised to test the 10000 level in the Dow, as well as the 1070=1075 level in the SPZ…
Crude Oil is currently up over 2 bucks at the 71 and change level…Positive economic news should serve to continue to support demand and therefore prices… 75 and 80 bucks still look like initial resistance levels the contract must yet test…
The metals continue to flirt with new all time highs in Gold although a wave of selling met the new contract high in GCZ this morning at the 1062 level… We are currently 6 bucks off the high, and it looks as if each new high will be met with a round of ready and willing sellers…1100 remains a key number, mostly because its nice round number and that will spark interest of traders and non-traders alike.. I am personally kind of questioning the validity of this move, mostly because I am beginning to see people who never pay any attention to commodities, asking me what I think of gold..
That to me suggests it may be a bit late in the game for the bulls, But, that being said, there may be pent up demand for gold if we can get through key resistance levels on the chart, which would attract new longs from the large index funds…
If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them here.. I will answer all of them as soon as I get a chance.
Good Trading