September 25, 2015 Written by Chris Robinson Corn: December Corn settled up 7 ½ cents at $3.89. CZ traded sideways to higher in quiet overnight trade, but then caught a bid on the 8:30 AM re-open and grinded higher all day. For the week, CZ gained 11 ¾ cents. The old analogy, “never sell a quiet market” seemed to apply today. Yield reports continue to be 30 to 50 bushels less than 2014 on average in IL. As we head into a perfect weekend for harvest, we should get more reports from the WCB. A lot of folks can’t wait to see if the yields there in the “garden spot” are as high as some had predicted. Managed funds bought 7K contracts today. Fundamental traders will be watching next week’s yield reports, friendly harvest weather and the absence of “frost talk” 3) next Wednesday’s quarterly stocks report and 4) the USDA on Friday October 9th. The technical analysts will focus on 1) the fact that CZ settled above both the 50-day moving average and 100-day moving averages at $3.83 and $3.87, respectively 2) the managed funds who remain long 58K contracts 3) chart resistance levels above which come at $3.95, $4.06 and then $4.17 ½. 4) Chart support below at $3.75 (Monday’s 2- week low), $3.64 ½ and then the contract low $3.57 ½ posted August 12th USDA report. Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Wheat: December wheat settled up 10 ½ cents at $5.07 ¾ which is a 1-month high settlement. For the week, WZ gained 21 cents or 4%. The managed funds came in short an estimated 33K contracts, but it looked like the funds chased some losers today, as they bought an estimated 4.5K contracts. Today’s performance has to warm the hands of the perma bulls, as wheat bounced back from what looked like a terrible performance Thursday. The settlement above the 50-day moving average at $5.04 was a bull victory. One should note, however that KCZ rallied right up to its 50-day at $5.04 as well but settled below at $5.00 ¼. Notice, not much has changed fundamentally. Large supply overhangs the world and the US. Russia’s “dryness” once again was trotted out as factor spurring bulls; this is interesting because 24 hours ago it was completely discounted. This week both French and Russian wheat have bounced from their harvest lows; but it remains to be seen if their mini-rally is the start of anything sustainable. Russian wheat is still $11/ MT cheaper than US feed wheat at the Gulf. The reality is that WZ has managed to claw back 40 cents in the last 3 weeks. This bounce comes in the wake of a $1.60 drop from the July highs down to the 5-1/2 year low price posted just 14 trading sessions ago. Resistance above comes at $5.24 ¾ and then $5.43 ¾. Support below remains at $4.80 and then $4.63 Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Soybeans: November soybeans settled up 21 ¼ cents at $8.89 ¼ which is the highest settlement in 1-month. For the week, SX gained 22 cents or 2 ½ %. A flash sale today of just 260K MT to unknown was announced. Bulls loved China’s ceremonial promise on Thursday to buy 13.2 MMT of soybeans, most likely spread out over 2 marketing years. It’s important to note that these “letters of understanding” are not binding. In the end, it’s more of a “feel good” story for producers, processors and politicians. That being said, it did help push is to a nice settlement and towards the coveted $9.00 print. The funds came in short 30K contracts today, but bought an estimated 8K contracts. Yield reports so far have been above average through most of the country. The currency spread between the US dollar and Brazil’s real seems to have finally played itself out. Yesterday saw the biggest one day swing higher for the Real in the last 7 years against the US$ as the ratio moved from 4:1 back below that ratio over a volatile 24 hour period. Currency issues might be the most important headwind facing bean prices this year. On the charts, resistance comes above at $8.94 ½, $9.08 and then $9.25. Support below rests at $8.58 and then 8.53 ¼ (contract low posted 9/11/15 USDA report day). Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Monday we will be closely watching the yield reports as well as the harvest progress. The weather looks perfect for harvest to move into high gear. Today producers were given a gift heading into the harvest weekend giving us 1-month high settlements in both wheat and soybeans. If you are following our plan, you should be in good shape. Over the last few weeks we pulled money out of any deep in the money puts where it was available. However, we still have puts in place. We simply have as little money tied up in them as possible. We still have the physical bushels at the ready to move should we get a good marketing opportunity. Keep your phone close next week in case we send out a cash sale recommendation via a text or email. Our cash sale recommendations are a key part of the service we provide our clients that can really help to take the stress out of marketing decisions. Have a great and safe weekend. CER RISK DISCLOSURE: THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A TOP THIRD BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, TOP THIRD DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. TOP THIRD, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE” ACCESSED BY THE LINK BELOW. 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