2015 Written By Chris Robinson Corn: CZ settled down 4-1/2 cents at $3.86. The FSA delivered drama this morning with its first release at 3:50 AM initially setting off a quick 6 cent sell off. At 7:30 AM, the FSA announced it would re-release the info at 9AM. Around 9:30 AM the market finally received the “corrected” numbers. Prevent -plant acres for corn increased to 2.35M from 2.3M. Analysts had predicted the heavy rains in the eastern Midwest this spring created a decline in acres. Much bull had thought the acres lost to prevent would have been higher than was reported. CZ posted its day-session high at $3.90 ¾ and fell to its low at $3.83 just after 11AMCST. Today’s lower close was the second lower sentiment after CZ had managed to string together 6 consecutive higher sessions. The managed funds began today long 81K contracts. On the ethanol front, the weekly numbers showed stocks declined to 768 million gallons, which is the lowest inventory level since 2014 and goes in the “bullish factors” column for corn. Bulls are still looking down at last Friday’s USDA day-session low at $3.64 ½ as the touch-stone on which to hand their hats. CZ managed to rally 35 cents in 6 trading sessions, so a little back filling from Tuesday’s 1-month high at $3.95 was not that unexpected. CZ has resistance above at $3.95, $4.06 and then $4.17. Support below comes at $3.82, $3.78 and then $3.64. Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Wheat: WZ settled down 6 ½ cents at $4.88 ¼. The wheat bird-dogged the corn all day to day. It posted its day session high on the 8:30 AM re-open at 4.95 ¼ and then slid to a low at $4.83 before retracing almost half of its losses through the afternoon. FSA data showed 52.3 million acres for the wheat. Fundamentally, the world is finally wrapping its head around the bearish fundamentals facing the whole world of producers. Both the Ukraine and Brazil have had cash prices slip this week. Throw in the strong US dollar, relative to Brazil’s and Russia’s currency woes and another item the bulls have to fight against. US wheat is still the most expensive in the world and one reason we continue to lose business to offers from the FSU and the Black Sea. Hindsight being 20/20, the 40 cent rally WZ had between the contract low at $4.63 posted 2 weeks ago; capped off by Tuesday’s 1-month high at $5.03 ½ is looking more like short covering event rather than a sea change of market opinion. The funds certainly have not budged much on this rally, as they began today’s trade short 40K contracts. Resistance on the charts comes at $5.00, $5.25 and the $5.44. Support comes on the charts at $4.83, $4.79 and then the contract low at $4.63. Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Soybeans: SX settled down just 1 ¾ cents at $8.87 ¼. The beans bounced around in the overnight trade with the 3:50AM release of the incorrect FSA data giving us a 20 cent swing, first breaking 10 cents then rallying back 10 cents. The contract posted its high on the 8:30AM re-open and could not pierce the 8.94 ½ level, only to once again fall a dime before calming down and rebounding into the close. Technically, there is a double top on the daily charts at $8.94 ½ which was Tuesday’s and today’s 1 -month high tick. This punctuates a nice 41 cent rebound from last Friday’s contract low at 8.53 ¼.The funds entered today short just 14K contracts, and the change in open interest reflects the fact that they have shaved about 10K off of their previous short position. They are also long 42K meal and short 20k oil. These fund positons are important to be aware of especially when the market is whipsawing back and forth under the influence of the HFT auto-bot traders. The managed funds tend to shy away from trying to scalp the market for ¼ moves like the HFT traders, and are more apt to hold positions longer. Resistance above comes on the charts at $9.00, $9.08 and then $9.25. Support below on the charts comes at $8.74, $8.69 and then $8.53 ¼. Hedgers: No change in recommendations. Much will be said about the data issue at the FSA today. I think for now, barring more info, its best to say nothing about the nature of the “whom”, “why” or “how” this happened. As risk managers, it just goes into the column of the “boy, I never saw that coming” category of things that we have to account for during a marketing year. Fortunately it was corrected and the market, at the end of the day, seemed none the worse for the wear. All in all it looked like a typical “whippy Wednesday”. Tomorrow between 1PM and 1:15PM CST, the FOMC will release its much-jawboned-about decision on interest rates. That most likely will give us sideways to choppy trade in all the markets as we await that decision. The markets most directly affected by the Fed’s decision will be the 10-year notes and the stock indexes, both the Dow and the S&P. A change in fed posture might spur a re-set in the US dollar vs the rest of the world and this, in turn could impact commodity prices. For now, post USDA, we are faced with CZ struggling to breach $4.00; WZ struggling to breach $5.00 and SX struggling to breach $9.00. On the positive side we’ve had 40 cent bounces off of recent lows in all three contracts. If we can get solid moves above those resistance levels, we MAY be opening up the door for higher prices. Vice Versa; if we take out the recent key support levels in all three contracts, roughly 40 cents lower across the board, the door opens for a search for new lows. Which would hurt you more; a rally back to the July highs or a drop below the recent contract lows? 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