May 21, 2015 Written by Chris Robinson Corn: July corn settled up 5 cents at $3.65. New crop CZ settled up 4 ¾ cents at $3.82 ¾. Corn opened lower and traded sideways to higher in a narrow 6 cent range. Slow pre-holiday trade was the tone of the day. US weekly export sales were slightly better than expected at 32 million bushels. Corn talk remained focused on 1) near record crop planting progress, 2) NOAA’s longer term forecast for normal/above normal rainfall and normal temps through August and no prediction for high temps 3) managed fund short position of 130K contracts (650 million bushels). Exports at 32 million bushels for corn were the one bright spot for exports today. The bulls continue to look for a weather story. The funds are short and seem content not to cannonball their position as of yet. New crop CZ corn has support at $3.76, the double bottom at $372 ¼ (posted 5/5/15 and 5/12/15) and then the contract low of $3.64 ¼ (10/1/14). Resistance above comes at $3.88 and then $4.00. Hedgers: June options expire tomorrow. Adjust your positons accordingly. Wheat: July Chicago Wheat settled up 9 cents at $5.22. This is the highest settlement in 6 weeks. Wheat posted its low overnight and then moved mostly higher in a 13 cent range for the rest of the day. Based on settlements alone, WN is now 55 cents higher than its contract low settlement posted just 3 weeks ago at $4.66 ½ . Just looking at 2015, WN had a high for the year at 6.09 and proceeded to fall $1.48 over 4-months. Monday’s high tick at $5.30 ½ is significant, because on just the yearly basis, WN clawed back 47% of its yearly loss. On Monday, Mark Gold sent out a recommendation to make an additional 10% cash sale for 2015 guaranteed bushels. Weekly exports were disappointing 3 million bushels. Algeria bought wheat overnight, but was shopping in Europe. The weak euro continues to undercut US prospects as our wheat remains the most expensive in the world. The managed funds continue to hold a large short bet of 86K contracts (430 million bushels). Technically, WN has resistance at $5.30 ¼ (Monday’s 6 -week high) $5.42 ¾ (3-month high and double top posted 4/2/15 and 4/6/15), $5.48 ½ and then $6.09 the 2015 high of the year. Hedgers: June options expire tomorrow. Plan accordingly. Soybeans: July Soybeans settled down 2 ¾ cents at $9.38 1/2 which is a new life of contract low. Beans took the sell pressure all day today, even though it traded in just an 11 cent range. New crop SX15 settled down 1 ¼ cent at $9.18 ½. This is also a new life of contract low settlement. Weekly exports were un-inspiring at 6 million bushels. The managed funds remain short 67K contracts (335 million bushels). Technically, July beans have opened up the door to a test of $9.00 with this contract low settlement. Resistance above comes at $9.60, $9.90 and then $10.00. The recent private acres forecast have left a mark on the bulls. With the USDA projecting a 500 million bu/ carry for 2015, adding 2 ½ million more acres wasn’t exactly the ointment the bulls needed to heal. Will the acres continue to grow? We won’t know for sure until the June 30th final acres report from the USDA. And let’s face it, if that report seems out of line at that time, bulls or bears will have another report to argue over. Hedgers: June dated options expire tomorrow. Plan accordingly. Will Mother Nature deliver higher prices later this year or will it be demand? The combined exports of corn, wheat and beans in the US are currently 1/3 less than what they were this time last year. Looking at the US dollar index, it’s easy to see at least part of the reason we are at these export levels. This time last year the dollar index was at 80. In fact it had been at that 80 level going back all the way to 2012. In fact the chart looks like a flat line there. Fast forward to July last year and you saw the dollar gain 20 points in 6-months. That’s a 25% gain over those same months. This type of a sea change in currencies has ripples in every market from Gold to Copper to the grains. Right now it’s just important for producers to realize that things like government interest rates and currency relationships can really impact our bottom line. With this type of currency head wind, a grain bull has to hope for a story from Mother Nature. Stay tuned. There’s a long time between planting and harvest and no one owns the future. Manage the risk and keep the upside open. Our program discipline holds steady, even when your emotions might be getting the better of you. CER Top Third Ag Marketing respects your privacy. Please click here to view our Privacy Policy. You received this email because your email address was recently used when completing an online registration form on the Top Third Ag Marketing website or because you explicitly asked to receive it. 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