This morning a friend sent me a statistic I found very interesting. If you have read my stuff at all, I am a big fan of being contrarian.
Presently we have a situation where the public turned bearish stocks a few months ago. As of this writing, that bearishness has only gotten more extreme.
Even more interesting is the bearishness of institutional portfolio managers.
We have the Dow at or challenging 5 month high prices. The S&P is fighting resistance. However, if this upper lid does not hold, sometime between now and the end of January, we could have an extremely harsh correction higher.
The fact that I am in general a bear gives me pause. But if the sentiment indicators are to be faded (which I always try to do) then we are positioned for a nasty bear trap rally here.
All we need to solidify this in my mind would be a front cover on Time or Newsweek with a bear on the front, or some other disparaging remark or quote. Perhaps a nice “End of the USA Dream” or “The eminent decline of the USA”…. THAT would make me want to load up the truck and get long. Then I’d turn off the tv and the radio, and stay long.
CER
another bold insight if not forecast to be watched. very interesting .