Contrarian play in Beans prior to USDA

Break Down as follows:  August Low in SF?  1169  September High 1406 1/4.  Half way back? $12.87
62% retracement– $12.60
 
Today we settled at 12.50 1/4….

Between now and Friday the contrarian play would be to take a long position.

Every one on the planet is bearish.

Food for thought.

We could rally back to $13.00,  hurt all the weak shorts… squeeze them out and then resume the down trend.
We’d have to get above $13.40 to change the trend back to bullish.  so… I’ll be pricing some 13.00-13.50 call spreads between now and Friday.
Also,  if you are short beans, sitting on big profits,  consider buying cheap calls as insurance should this number come out bullish.
Usually the market moves so to injure the herd.  Right now the herd is comfortably bearish.

Today’s only Tuesday.  Lets see how it trades through Thursday’s close.
CER

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