Barring 2 consecutive settlements above 15,500 in Sep Dow Futures, I’d remain short.
The cash Dow posted a record high yesterday, on the 18th at 15,589.
If you have followed me for any length of time, you know I like to fade popular opinion. I have to think this weekend all of the Talking Heads across the media blitz field, will be talking about the new record highs in the Dow.
Will any one notice that we have rallied 9000 pts from the 2009 lows? This morning when I drove to work, I listened to the same add 3 times on AM radio. The company was looking for anyone that lost money in the “recent financial debacle”. Perhaps they should wake up and read the paper. At least most people, if they didnt’ sell on the panic lows, ( that’s a big if).. IF the didn’t then they have recouped all their losses, and are 1,500 pts higher than when the wheels fell off in 2009.
That being said, the same people that were running around like their hair was on fire in 2009 will no doubt be stepping up popping champagne bottles this weekend. Those are the people you need to fade.
The icing on the cake to tell me that the rally is over? A cover on Time Magazine or Newsweek (is Time or Newsweek still published?) All we need is a front page or cover story entitled “The Bull is Back”, or “Dow 30,000?” That will be the kiss of death.
For now. Sit tight .
If you are not already short, get short.
IF you don’t want futures margin issues, buy September Dow puts.
CER