This downward channel holds again for CZ. I just don’t see if there’s a 60 cent bump due to a weather premium. We have 2 weeks of weather risk as Corn pollenates. That’s it. in 21 years I have seen more bizarre moves. If we come in on a Monday after a weekend before the end of July, and the temps are 100 degrees and there’s no rain,,, then we can get that pop.
In my opinion, that’s the only thing that could stop CZ from continuing the slide which began 10 months ago.
That being said, If you are a farmer and have sold corn higher (say around 6.50 or 6.00) why not spend 8 cents on a $6.00 6.80 call spread? That’s a 10:1 pay off if corn rallies.
Finally, we had an 81 cent break from 5.71 down to Sunday night’s low at 4.90. We then rallied back from $4.90 to $5.28 1/4. A rally to 530 1/2 would have been a 50 % pull back. We missed it by less than 2 cents. If we settle below $5.10 on Friday, it might be problematic for the bulls.
CER