New crop Corn remains well below its 33 month Trend line of Doom. I don’t see anything baring an act of god or nature that will let us see 6.00 corn again for a very long time. We’d have to get a 4th year in a row of drought. That seems very unlikely to me.
CZ looks bound and determined to go down and get the $5.00 print. Today’s low settlement at $5.35 was the lowest in 10-months.
Corn has just had a baby, lol.
Old crop CK made a new low for the move CK has dropped $1.11 in 6 trading sessions. 15 % of its value in 6 trading days.
NEXT !!!
Old crop corn has lost $1.06 from its highs. 6 days ago, we were at 14.60 Today’s low at 13.54. That’s 7% in 6 days.
New crop corn saw a 48 cent drop from Thursday’s high. While it didn’t make a new low today, it settled at a new 10 month low settlement. Hardly looking healthy.
wheat was the only green on the screen today in grains. It really looked like more short covering than anything else. The funds have been short wheat. Gains here have deadened the pain from losing millions on long Old-Crop positions. But its most likely too little too late.
Next week should be interesting. Traders will have all weekend to look at the charts. My guess is, they come in and now that they are flat, and out of their longs… they now start getting short.
It could get ugly for any remaining bull stalwarts.
Switching gears to the indexes. Unemployment drops to 7.6 from 7.7. HOWEVER. US economy only created 88k new jobs while,,, get this …… 663,000 DROPPED OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE!!!
89,967,000 are now out of the labor force… And there fore Not Counted as Unemployed. Since Obama took office, 9,460,000 people have dropped out of the labor force. I just have three letters for that WTF. Yet, we go merrily along, Stock market is at $14,481…down only by 50 points and still sitting at record highs.
The market is telling us that either unemployed people don’t matter to this economy,,, or there is a forward looking explosion in hiring just around the corner. I’m not sure which.
I only know if I had told you these employment figures 8 years ago, and then told you that the Dow would be at record highs, you would have had me institutionalized for my own good.
Yet here we are.
My advice, Buy dips in the Dow, but have sell stops. If you are locked into an IRA or a plan, make sure you have some cheap out of the money puts on as insurance. I am not sure when the correction will come, but I’m guessing it will be ugly.
Til then….
I like being short grains. Especially CZ.
Have a great weekend. New grain hours Sunday night 🙂 Yeah 🙂 !!
CER