Today I’d take profits on long positions in the grain and walk away for the weekend.
In the last 2 weeks, corn and wheat rallied over 50 cents and beans rallied almost 90. We were just at 5 month lows in the beans and 4 month lows in the wheat.
In my opinion, we are near the top of the foreseeable trading range. We have no major numbers looking at us until January’s planting intentions.
We run the risk of more political theater about the fiscal cliff.
Farmers are looking at a slew of tax increases in 2013.
I think profits will be booked.
I think December will be a terrible month for trading.
Remember, this is my blog. I write it one a day or once every other day. Its my opinion at the time of the writing. I began writing this because I got bored when I left the floor in 2009. Its an exercise which makes me focus, makes me get concrete thoughts.
It also lets some of my clients see my general thoughts on the market.
Believe it or not, I may actually write one thing. But then flip and do the opposite as a fact of managing the position.
I believe that money management vs trade selection is the key to long term success trading.
I never get emotionally invested in any position.
On several occasions, i have had random readers write in an point out that my opinion was wrong.
My response is and always will be, I could care less about being right on an opinion.
Opinions allow you to have the courage to put a position on and not just talk about it and play woulda coulda shoulda.
Any idiot can be right on a position. Buy it and it goes up. Sell it and it goes down. It does not mean you are smart or that God loves you.
Its much more important that you have a plan when you are wrong. That plan may be hold it. Double up. Add to losers. Or get out.
Losers averages losers.
If you get out of losers consistently, you may have a chance, long term to do OK. Failure to do that is a recipe for disaster.
So that’s my two cents on readers who email me to Monday morning quarter back.
I always offer for them to fade me. That is , do the opposite of my opinion. Just do me the courtesy of letting me handle the brokerage. 😉
At the end of the day, if you want to see what the reality of my long term performance is, vs reading a blog, I’d invite you to open an acccount with me and then, and only then, will you have concrete numbers.
Have a great weekend.
CER
CER