I don’t like the Dow again from a buyer’s position until we get back to 12,700 or 12,650.. We might just chop aimlessly here in a 600 pt trading range through Christmas. For now I’d be a comfortable seller of rally’s against the 12,985 level.
In the grains, I certainly would not be stepping in front of this market selling new rallies. I’d stay long, especially through Friday’s close. Friday’s close might give us a chance to take some good profits off in front of the weekend.
Fundamentally, we are going to have to watch the following 1) weather 2) fund length 3) outside markets. Watch the gold and the stock market.
One huge caveat. A broker a know reminded me of a story from the past about the Dangers of Trading in December. Paul Tudor Jones, certainly a super trader, if there ever was one, was famous for giving his staff time off between Thanksgiving and New years.
Think about it.
If you are a trader and you’ve had a good year, take time off to relax. The only people still trading are those that have to trade. IE, guys who have had bad 4th years.
December historically has had some of the worst, most choppy and dangerous markets I saw over 23 years in the business.
If you must trade, at least cut your positions in 1/2 or in 1/3. Believe me, looking back in time, December for me was one month, net/net I would have been better taking off, spending money on a vacation and I would have still come out ahead over time.
Ok.
Enough Said.
CER