Dow futures tested the 13,300 level 2 days ago in anticipation of easing or dovish comments from the fed. I am not calling this a top, but, if you have been following me, you know I look for counter trend trades to take lower risk profits. Today we have an opportunity to protect profits on short positions be they futures or options based bets. Move protective stops on you futures to ensure that at worst case you have a break even. Take profits on 1/3 of the futures at or near the 13,025 level.
As for the Beans and Corn, It looks like we are in for a breather. If you have profits in short positions, or if your put options have gained in value, consider adding to those positions.
We will see if tomorrow, on options expiration, we have just a temporary flush lower. However, by next week, if we have rolled over, we should have opportunities to ride short positions lower. The down draft may accelerate if the recent longs ( who bought in the last 3 weeks with all of the media hype) have to escape.
When everyone is running for the exit, that door gets smaller and smaller.
Of course, a hard correction here, in CZ below 7.00, or a pull back in SX down to $15.00 would be a terrific buying opportunity.
At the end of the day we do have supply issues. It just seems evident that they have gotten over exposure from the national media.
If you think I am wrong, fade me. For now I like my positions. I like being short here as August ends and September begins.
If you have a different opinion, keep it to your self or write your own little blog. I am not here to win any converts. I just use this as a record of my thoughts and opinions.
CER