Watching the wires today you can tell its a slow news day. So What that the Dow is down 315 pts.. Where have these people been hiding for the past 14 months??? How about some flipping perspective for a change instead of fear mongering?
November 14th, just 6 days ago we were at 12,203. Today’s low?? 11,420 so far.. Its’ still only 1 PM. In an hour when the bonds close, we’ll probably flush another 200 pts.
ON a chart we have had a 1,000 point trading range since August. A low down at 10,329 met by a high at the 12,232 level… 11,281 is the 1/2 way point.
That’s probably where we’ll sit and probably where we’ll settle on Dec 31st. Its the mid way point of a ridiculously big, unprecedented 1,000 point trading range.
One day the computers love the stocks. The next they are running because the sky is falling.
Seriously… enough.. If I hear one more TV analyst express shock and dismay over 500 point sell offs and glee and giddiness when we rally back 500 points, I think I am going to permanently turn off my television and radio.
This market is volatile. There is fear and emotion driving it. Trying to do anything except step in at the extremes of this trading range can be nasty and dangerous.
Go back and look at what I wrote last week. I put positions on based soley on the fact that we were at the upper range of this move. Nothing else.
Did you seriously think that Europe was fixed? Did you really thing our congress would step up to the plate and solve the US spending issues?
We are mired in this trading range. Until things change drastically, I think this is where we sit. And the TV pundits will cry on the breaks and dance on the rallies.
As for the grains, we have wheat and corn and beans under pressure.
Speculative trend following funds flipped to being short beans for the first time in about 2 years. That should give bulls a reason to stop and re consider calling for 18 dollar beans.
Exports remain dis appointing. Farmers are sitting on unpriced wheat planning to store it until prices rally back. They missed selling 7.00 corn when corn was at 7.50 They missed selling 14 dollar beans when we were at 14.50. They missed selling 9 dollar wheat and we are at 6.dollars now…
That suggests to me that we have some more pain to go to the down side, but we’re probably closer to a bottom than we were last Monday :).
CER