Blog Archive

Its the weather market of 2010. July 15th and we have our bullish scenario. Significant 66 cent rally from the June 29th contract low in Dec corn, 115 rally in old crop beans. 150 rally in new crop wheat. Certainly a gift for farmers who held out on cash sales.

As of yesterday, we had funds continuing to move towards new long positions, which is positive. Longs adding to longs, adding to previous winners, are necessary for a sustained rally.
If you are a bull, this is the type of action you want to see, as opposed to weak specs jumping on the band wagon […]

I like being long SN, especially on a 20 cent break from 940 to the old resistance level at 920. 950 and 975 are good targets to sell into on the first bounce up there. As July gets ready to expire, we should see a lot of significant price development, with less static noise and choppy trade. Old crop beans should be bought on dips. However, you need to have stop limits beneath every buy order. If I am right, and we get another 75 to 150 cent rally, just move up your trailing stops. Beans are made in August. Its the middle of July. […]

First off, too bad no one actually reads this thing. I wrote just last night that it looked like old crop beans SN would go test 1020. We did just that, traded there and then broke hard right after. Resting order to sell there worked well, especially if you bought the dips on the way up. However, currently my readership is about negative 3, so it doesn’t really help anyone but me.

Tomorrow we have USDA out.. It will most likely be bullish in tone. However, I am anticipating a spike higher and then a correction lower on a “buy the rumor-sell the fact” trade.

If it looks, like it, acts like and smells like it, we could be looking at the break out from our 4 month sideways chop in the grains. CZ pushed up against the 390 level, SX is up against 934,and old crop looks like its coiled and ready to test 1020 and then 1075.

Wednesday’s supply and demand could give us the fuel to finally break up and out of the resistance which has characterized these grains for the last 4 months. The oats, otherwise known as the canary in the coal mine, seem to have taken a break after a violent move higher, followed […]

Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any […]

Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any […]

Looks like my idea that farmers were capitulating was correct. The USDA came out extremely bullish here today for corn. Expecting 88 to 90 million acres, instead, we got 87.8. We lost one million acres of corn. Opened higher today, and has danced around limit bid (+30) cents all day. This is looking like a sea change. We moved all the way back to our 2007 lows in the Dec 2010 contract. Made a new contract low,
frightened producers into what are shaping up to be sales in the proverbial hole.

Rest assured, its a good time to re-own sold bushels. A 15 cent investment […]