Blog Archive

China is on vacation for a week. The rest of the world, if they are Catholic predominantly will be pre-occupied for Ash Wednesday. All in all its a good week to sit back and chill. I think today we saw a short covering rally across the board. All the bearishness is the wall of worry we must climb in these stock indexes.

For what its worth, March Beans have bounced 66 cents from its low at 900 posted just 7 trading days ago. And yes, it was a 38 percent retracement, a Fibonacci retracement. Once again a self fulfilling number? Perhaps… but it works often […]

One more piece of bearishness which may help fuel this continued creeping rally higher.
Markets climb a wall of worry. All I can say is that Richard Russell may be correct. I don’t have a crystal ball. I do know that I would look for a correction to the 1/2 way point of the 10 month 4,000 point rally in the Dow. I’ve been writing that for about 6 weeks now. However, on the bullish tone, we are continuing to have newsletter writers and such call for 1) a double dip, or 2) a major meltdown to last March’s lows. Richard Russell is recommending zero […]

Dow 10,000 is important psychologically. AS are the round numbers, every 500 points in the Dow. Watch those as trading targets.
I have been bullish all year. I really think we need to go up and print the 11,000 in the Dow Cash to see what is really in store for these Markets.
The bearish sentiment is certainly prevalent. That should be enough to fuel a rally.

A rally in the dollar, I think has now been figured into the world’s calculation. Last week’s liquidation of a large European fund which was long crude oil, long gold and short the us dollar is either an […]

Look for support at 9067 and then 8566 in the DJH, if we melt down the next few weeks.
In the SPH, Support is at 964 and 907. These are the levels I would look at buying the first time we test them for a bounce.

Good Trading

I think if we settle this Dow lower on the week, it signals a potential for a test of the 8600 level.
I like the Fibonacci retracement in SH, March beans up to the 964 1/2 level. We seem to have found support at the 900 level, and I think we will have a push up to the 955 area.
Longer term this Summer, I think this will be a good year for the July/Nov bull spread.

Mark Gold likes it, and is looking for a drought this year as well. Now is the time to start thinking about putting that spread on.
Be aware, […]

We made it through unemployment Friday. By the way, its always the first Friday of every new month. So we have 11 more of these ASININE productions put on by the info-tainment reporters on cable. Many of the analysts with trading backgrounds I have a lot of respect towards.
Its the reporter, or the analyst whose experience has been sales based ONLY that make me cringe. Its just a pet peeve of mine. So from time to time, since this is MY blog, I will vent accordingly.

That being said, I also like to use the emotions on the part of the reporter’s as a […]

We made it through unemployment Friday. By the way, its always the first Friday of every new month. So we have 11 more of these ASININE productions put on by the info-tainment reporters on cable. Many of the analysts with trading backgrounds I have a lot of respect towards.
Its the reporter, or the analyst whose experience has been sales based ONLY that make me cringe. Its just a pet peeve of mine. So from time to time, since this is MY blog, I will vent accordingly.

That being said, I also like to use the emotions on the part of the reporter’s as a […]

Low this morning after the unemployment number in DJH was 9890. We bounced back and are now unchanged in the dow at 9978. A nice 80 points. 80 points on a mini dow is 400.
Hope you did the trade.
That is all.

Good Trading

PS, CNBC was covering the unemployment number like the Rose Bowl Parade. A bunch of people sitting outside on stools, waiting for the white puff of smoke from the vatican… Amazing

Tomorrow, 730CST.. UNENJOYMENT. Perhaps the single most anticipated unemployment number in the history of …. (oh wait, I dont’ work for CNBC, Whew> I can go hyper ventilate into a paper bag now…)

So tomorrow is unemployment. I think its a sell the rumor buy the fact number. Will we break below 10,000? absolutely. But then I think we rally back and chop up all of the bears.
Once again, however, I’d have my trades in accordingly. Look for a 100 to 150 pt down side push on the number. Have a resting order at 9900 or 9850, risking another 25 to 50 […]

6- month high in the DXY….

Today the US dollar completed a 38% retracement of the 10 month down move, which began last march 2009. The next target is 82 in the dollar index. That would be a 50 percent retracement. Above that we have a 62% retracement at 84.00. Just a heads up. About six weeks ago, in the blog, I wrote that I thought we would see 82. I still like that as a target. This obviously would result in much lower prices for commodities which move inversely with the dollar. A higher dollar makes our crops and stocks more expensive.

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