Blog Archive

Look at my Friday, Feb 29th post. I have to toot my own horn, because no one else is interested yet. 10,000 held, the high was 10,776, but for our purposes, call it 10,800. Half-way back is 10400. I think you sell it there the first time up.

In the grains, I think this is a short covering rally. 1.70 down move in the beans, 70 cents in the corn? Since the USDA number? We have to have a rally back. Intermediate term, however, this market looks like it has more work to do on the down side, in both corn and beans. With New […]

If you go back an look at my recent posts, you will see that I was cautiously bullish down here at these levels in the market.
It seems that things are sufficiently bearish now to generate a short covering rally. We have unemployment Friday. I could see a rally right up until that number and then a re-flush to the down side, if only short term.
If the market gets bad news Friday morning, with higher unemployment, and is able to rebound and remain above the 10,000 support, I would look for a continued throw in the towel rally by the remaining bears.
Just make […]

I awoke to the headline “stocks have worst month since feb 09”. Is that enough to get the sentiment bearish enough for a rally? I am not sure.
Let’s wait for next Friday’s Unemployment figure. Why not…? Everyone else is…
I still think we are on the precipice of either 1) a bounce back with a continuation in the 1-year rally we started ‘enjoying’ in March of 09. I put that in quotes b/c that rally was met with more pessimism than ants at a pic nick. As a whole, investors were 1) suspicious of the rally b/c it was relatively light volume, 2) […]

In the grains, it is the last day of the month. The trend in these grains is down, and typically we can see near term lows or highs at the end of months depending on the trend for that month.
With beans down 1.50 since the Jan 4th high, old crop corn down .70 cents and old crop wheat down 1.00, I’d say the trend is down.

We may get an blip down here today which may give a buying opportunity. As always, pick your spots, and have your stops.
It would be good for a bounce if we get some traction here. […]

Was this the correction we needed? All it took was some populist comments from President Obama, Ala Huey Newton in the 1930’s and we get a mini Russian Revolution?
Time will tell if this was the correction on the way to 11,500 or the beginning of the slide down to 1/2 way back of the last 11 month rally. The low in March 09 was 6440, The recent high was 10,767. 1/2 way back of that move is 8603. If you’ve read my blog for any length of time, you know I like the 1/2 way back trade.
So, if the wheels fall off […]

As the dollar moves up towards the 79 -80 level, we are watching commodity prices move lower. The inverse relation ship continues.
Look for front month silver to test 15.80 and front month gold to test 1075.

Watch for an over reaction to the down side in the stocks, as the Dow flirts with a settlement below 10,000. Such a settlement would undoubtedly spark a new round of short selling.

Good Trading

With our move below the 931 1/2 trend line in SH, moving down to a fresh multi-week low at 926, that trend line will magically become resistance. Look to sell that 930 level, risking 5 cents.
The charts look terrible, and the 908 level would open a test of the 900 and the 888 old Oct 09 low.
If China starts pulling its bids, with the restrictions on their banks over there, we could really see the air let out of these tires.
South America is into the teeth of its harvest and we could see further weakness through the next USDA number on March […]

Pull up a daily chart for SH. Plot a trend line from the 3/3/2009 low at 805. A second point at the 10/06/2009 low at 888. Today’s trendline intersection of this 11-month trend line is signficant at 931 1/2. Look for a test, a good 5 to 13 cent bounce after the first test. If we go below it significantly, we should have selling pressure down to the 908 level.

Good Trading

Did you buy against 930 today in SH? That was my idea yesterday. I can see us absolutely tearing through that level, however if it does not hold. Perhaps even a gap lower on an opening basis. That longer term, old low down at 887-884 looks like where we’ll find real value. And that level just might bring in some fresh shorts into the beans.
I still want to be bullish going into the State of the Union Address. The level of bearishness is palpable right now, and that can only mean a surprise short covering rally.
Obviously, you have to have protective sell stops […]

I like looking to be long the Dow and S&P going into and right after the State of the Union address. Everyone I know is looking for a negative reaction to the Speech. It seems that lately, every time the President speaks, its a free put option on the markets. I think this speech may be a buy the rumor, sell the fact opportunity. You can’t go wrong fading popular opinion, and the popular opinion has/or is shifting away from the hugely favorable ratings President Obama had enjoyed for the first year of his Presidency. I think it may be a matter of time before […]