Blog Archive

So far grain traders have been waiting in vain for the funds to strap on their buying shoes and get busy in 2010. Perhaps its true that a lot of the fund managers are still enjoying skiing vacations in Switzerland, Aspen or where ever it is those types vacation.
All in all its been a surprisingly low volume beginning to the year. The lone exception has been in the wheat and today in the crude oil.

March wheat is looking to be the strong horse so far in the grains, which is ironic, because it has the weakest fundamental picture, with steady demand and a […]

With the Dollar Index taking it on the chin, and 78 looking more like resistance than just a stepping stone on the way to higher correction, the market picture looks cloudy once again.
Those looking for a clear answer to what the future holds can only be guaranteed 3 things, 1) risk, 2) volatility and 3) 20/20 hindsight. That being said we entered into 2010 with a bang. The stock indexes made fresh 15 month highs, while crude oil and the metals beat the bullish drum and rallied higher. Feb crude oil is flirting with its old October highs, possibly staging a charge for the […]

Pent up buying hit across the grains today. I hope for the sake of the bulls that this wasn’t the whole wad of business from the funds. If it is, this January could look suspiciously like Jan 09,when we made our highs early in January and then hit the skids for the rest of the first quarter. Does any one else remember that action last year? Just a caveat that while the charts look like they are basing, and perhaps are even starting to turn bullish on an intermediate term, anything can happen. The fact remains that the funds are the tail that wags the […]

The Perfect Bullish Storm in the Grains for 2010?

From my first day on the floor of the CBOT in 1992, the phrase I heard the most from veteran traders was, “All I want is a drought and beans in the teens.” Much like the lament of every die hard Chicago Cubs fan hoping that this year will be the year the Cubs finally win the World Series, every grain trader who experienced the 1988 drought year longed for another.

As we look to possible scenarios for the grains in 2010, in addition to the usual hope for a drought, we have at least four […]

I have been writing this blog for about 5 months now. I have had a few emails from interested readers for specific questions about trading. As we enter 2010, if you have a question which you think I would be able to answer given my 18 years experience as a trader, feel free to make a post or email me directly.
What ever your level of experience and whatever markets you are trading, if you have a question, send it to me.
I have the experience to share with you. Feel free to contact me, and hopefully I can help you.
Also, if you like […]

Today’s shortened trading day has seen a little movement in the stock indexes, gold and silver and the crude oil contract. All in all with so few traders participating, its hard to get too enthused about any movement.
We are all waiting for next Friday’s Unemployment figure. The first Friday of every month gives us the data, that for better or worse, the whole trading world seems to look to at this point. I can remember back in 1982, 1983 when the number everyone was in love with was M1, or money supply. Today, however, its unemployment. And Next friday, Jan 8th, we will get […]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that 2009 is a year we won’t soon forget. Rather than re-hash what we all lived through, I think its best we bid 2009 farewell and adieu.

Today trading is mixed, as was to be expected. I will write two summaries, beginning with the grain complex. And the second installment today will cover stocks, metals and the crude oil.

For now, lets look at the Jan beans. In my opinion, between the thousands of ten dollar calls which were exercised last Thursday, and the continued buying which is materializing, this very well could be […]

Today’s move in the dollar index, while not spectacular, is still bullish. DXY, the cash index, is holding up firmly here at the 78 level. So many articles have been written about the dollar carry trade, and so many people are looking for a bounce to the 80 to 81 level, we are most likely going to have to wait for the first two weeks of 2010 to see if the trade unfolds. Currently, the charts still look friendly, from a short to intermediate term continuation rally.

In the crude oil market, Feb Crude continues its 11-day trek higher, despite the higher dollar. This most […]

My earlier post mentioned the gap higher in the March corn. Nature hates a vacuum, so that gap was promptly filled today, as CH spiked down to 406, and then just as quickly punished new shorts and weak longs simultaneously, by quickly snapping back to the 415-416 level. Just one more case study of why this time of the year, trading, in a word, can be treacherous. Thin volume, little follow-through on moves, create a situation where trading can be like putting your hand in a garbage disposal or a blender…If you’re trying to grab the gold in the bottom, your timing has to be […]

Jan Beans look strong, along with march corn, despite the rally in the dollar index up to the 78.00 level. March Wheat took it on the chin, however, with a high at 555 before melting 14 cents to the 540 level. The beans remain the stalwart, however. Speculation is it might be early fund buying, or it may be the unwinding of the shorts who had to deliver on those ten dollar Jan calls.
In any event, for a quiet holiday day, it was an interesting trade.
SF posted a low at 1020, a high at 1040 and settled at 1038. We have rallied from […]