Blog Archive

Jan Beans look strong, along with march corn, despite the rally in the dollar index up to the 78.00 level. March Wheat took it on the chin, however, with a high at 555 before melting 14 cents to the 540 level. The beans remain the stalwart, however. Speculation is it might be early fund buying, or it may be the unwinding of the shorts who had to deliver on those ten dollar Jan calls.
In any event, for a quiet holiday day, it was an interesting trade.
SF posted a low at 1020, a high at 1040 and settled at 1038. We have rallied from […]

Just looked at a quick daily chart of the Dow Jones Cash. Last March 2009, we traded to a low at 6,440. Our recent 14 month high, yesterday, Monday Dec 27th, was 10,585. A whopping 4,145 point move from low tick to high tick. Similarly, our low in the SP500 cash was a scary 666 last March… Today we traded up to 1,130 for a new 14 month high. 464 points. From the darkest depths of fear and loathing to today’s new highs.

You can make of it what you like. The first quarter will tell us volumes. If new money comes pouring into these […]

A continuation of the see saw trade between the dollar index, the metals and crude oil is what we are seeing today in these holiday markets.
The dollar index is up 20 or so tics today, flirting with the 78.00 level. In response, the metals both have moved lower, with March silver down 370 at 1719, and Feb Gold at 10998, -81. Feb crude oil is sitting at the 7885 level after posting a new high at 7938. Certainly the 80dollar level remains a target for the bulls with the crude oil.

As there are talks of more unrest in Iran, potentially 25 to 30 […]

Yesterday’s large rally in the grain complex, might have set us up for a bit of a correction today. This phenomenon is known as turn around Tuesday. Basically, its a tendency for the markets to give back a portion of a Monday move. Doesn’t matter if Monday’s move was sharply higher or lower, very often Tuesday, the day after, witnesses a mini-correction.
So far today we only have a good retracemnt in the March wheat. This morning WH opened at 553, its high of the day. WH then proceeded to dive down to 541 its low of the day and has now rebounded slightly to […]

Six days ago, the Dow was at 10250, we are currently up around 10550. Six days ago cash S&P was at 1,095 and today we are around the 1,130 level. True, the Dow needs to get back to the 11000 or 12000 level to really constitute a comfortable rebound. The cash S&P needs to get to the 1200 or 1300 level to reach its old plateau.

However, considering where we were last March 2009, the rebound can only be called healthy. Along the way, the bears harped and fretted that “the rally wasn’t real” or “the rally won’t last”. etc. etc…..
But, true to from, […]

Depending on you own psychological make up, you are more likely to be bullish or bearish. Its just a fact of life. And newspapers or newsletter services exist to tell people what they want to hear. That’s just a fact. For 25 years I read Barron’s covers. They were always bearish. Always writing about the deficit, federal or trade, it didn’t matter, it was the 7th sign of the Apocalypse. But they had their loyal readership
I always imagined a true Barron’s reader as some one living in a 3rd generation mansion in Conn some where. Barron’s was more about bond investing, and protecting […]

With the weekend activity spurring some fear about new mid-east issues, crude oil continued its bounce back up towards the 80 dollar level. Two factors influencing that move are 1) the unrest in Iran 2) the Christmas Day Detroit Plane Incident in the US, and 3) the feeling that Russia’s comment that it would not take sides in an Iranian/ Israeli conflict, all combined to push these commodity markets higher.

Throw in thin holiday action and you have a recipe for a sharp up move. On the daily charts, March Corn had an impressive pop higher, with its high at 418 1/2, the 420 to […]

Soybeans, wheat and corn are all higher, mostly trading off of the weaker dollar, not to mention the fact that these are thin holiday markets.
Jan beans opened at 1012, posted a low at 1011 1/2, rallied to 1017 and is currently up 14 1/2 cents at 1014. Resistance to keep in mind is the 1021-1025 level. We recently went down and tested the support area at 985, only a few sessions ago.

March corn is up 5 1/2 cents at 414. CH opened at 415 1/2 posted a low at 413 3/4 and a high at 418 1/2.

March wheat opened at on its […]

Another short 4 day week ahead of us here in the US. The calender is pretty empty.
At this time of the year, my advice continues to be, go find something else to do besides trying to trade in these holiday markets.

Here in Chicago, we are right on Lake Michigan. On countless days, the radio advises “small craft warning” due to choppy, 3 foot plus waves. Once about ten years ago, I found myself on a friend’s boat during one of those warnings. Lake Michigan is no place to be in a 20 foot sailboat when the waves are 3 and 4 feet. Its […]

On December 29th, I will be launching my new website, CERTRADERVOX.COM

There will be a link on that site to this blog for simplicity.

I have a whole lot planned for 2010 with this blog site.
It took me 4 months or so to work out some of the daily kinks, and also settle on a blog name that I liked.

CERTRADERVOX.COM will allow me more freedom to list interesting links, add my video links, as well as build a more responsive site for you the visitor.

As 2010 begins, I will be announcing new developments and partnership agreements for my advisory and brokerage business.

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