Blog Archive

With today’s fresh 3-month high in the cash dollar index at 78.11, the 50% retracement of the massive down move since last March to November’s lows, is definitely coming into play.

The grains are pretty much ignoring any fundamental news. The story remains the strong dollar, and interestingly the simultaneous bounce in the crude off its lows.

The grains and the gold are feeling the pressure of the 3 month high in the dollar index.

So far today the action is as follows.
SF down 6 cents at 1016 after making a low at 1010. SF posted a high at 1026 on the open for […]

Today the old adage, “never sell a quiet market” looks to be panning out for those who heeded its advice. Today being quadruple witching, with the simultaneous expiration of 1) stock index futures, 2)stock index options, 3)single stock futures, and 4)stock options, should combine for some volatility. Options traders will be coming for the underlying instruments, especially if they sold calls or puts. Everyone needs to be flat before close of business today.
That being said, the stock indexes are slightly higher early in the day.

As we move into the march contracts in the stock indexes, I will have the updated technical points after […]

I posted long term charts of silver and gold tonight. They are at the bottom of this page. I wanted to refresh my memory of the history of those contracts. General opinion seems to be we are headed for inflationary times once again. The last time we had big inflation was in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I was in third or fourth grade and I can remember President Ford with his WIN (whip inflation now) pins.

He wanted the general public, I believe, to help stop inflation. It wasn’t’ until Paul Volker took over the Fed, appointed by President Carter and who served under […]

Tonight I took the advice of friend of mine and made my blog address easier to follow.
its now http://certradervox.blogspot.com/

Easier to remember, easier to type. if you like the site, spread the word
Thanks

Good Trading

Stocks ended lower today, but not substantially lower. Of course, the news line was panic because the Dow was down 1 percent, but with the Dow between 10500 and 10200, is one percent really that significant? I would argue not really. Talk to me when we have some 500 point moves.

Apparently, no one at CNBC or MSNBC or for that matter, any media outlet, took a course in statistics. A one hundred point move when the Dow is at 5000 is much more significant than when its at 10000 or at our old highs in 07- 14,280. All they care about is the “biggest […]

In the Cash Dollar Index, DXY, these are the numbers to be aware of.
The March 09 high was 89.49. Our recent low was 74.23 in November 09, just last month.

That differential is 15.26 points. Half of that move is 7.63 points. Adding 7.63 to 74.23 gives us a 1/2 way back target of 81.86. The 81.85 to 82.00 level is the first stop on the rally train. 78.04 is a 25 percent retracement. Today’s high at 77.94 was extremely close to a perfect 25 percent retracement.

That is all.

Good Trading

Christopher Walken has a funny skit on Saturday Night Live where they re-create the studio recording of Blue Oyster Cult’s “Don’t Fear the Reaper” late 70’s classic. In it, his famous line is “I need more Cowbell, go ahead and really explore the space”.
Well today as the Dollar index posted a new 2 month high, that’s exactly what these grains did. They explored the space and the depths of the recent one month trading range, with a bungee jump ride down to new lows.

In any event, my last post was pretty accurate as to where the SF would find support.
SF Tested […]

Christopher Walken has a funny skit on Saturday Night Live where they re-create the studio recording of Blue Oyster Cult’s “Don’t Fear the Reaper” late 70’s classic. In it, his famous line is “I need more Cowbell, go ahead and really explore the space”.
Well today as the Dollar index posted a new 2 month high, that’s exactly what these grains did. They explored the space and the depths of the recent one month trading range, with a bungee jump ride down to new lows.

In any event, my last post was pretty accurate as to where the SF would find support.
SF Tested […]

With the rise in the US Dollar Index through the 78 level, we are watching the equal and opposite response in the physical commodities. For a few sessions it looked like this relationship would be broken, as grains rallied with the small bounce in the Dollar. However, today we have seen the spread return to a directly inverse relationship. The dollar rally sparked selling across the board in the grains and metals, and crude oil.

What is interesting is the break in the face of much larger than anticipated exports in corn and beans. Fundamentally, we should be a lot higher, based on this demand. […]

Watching the cable business shows this morning, and as I suspected and wrote a few days ago, the talk is abuzz of the “dollar-carry trade unwinding”. As the Swine Flu has yet to turn into a pandemic, and the sub-prime crisis has lost its sex-appeal, this undoubtedly will be what we are inundated with over the next 3 to 9 months.

Also, I continued to be amazed every time the Dow breaks over 100 pts, watching and listening you’d think it was the beginning of the End of Days. A look at the charts shows us the SPZ was on its highs just yesterday up […]