Blog Archive

The Markets all breathed a sigh of relief after the Fed held pat and indicated that they would not change rates at this time. There was also indication that the Fed is more worried about unemployment than inflation at this time.

The Dollar Index rallied to settle on an new 2 month high above the 77 resistance level. That opens the door up to a continuing rally up to the 80-82 level. Gold and Silver rallies as well, despite the dollar rally, as evidence that, for now we are in a corrective rally towards equilibrium in both those metals. March Silver rallied to a high […]

So far most of the reaction to the CPI and housing starts has been basically neutral. The actual numbers were both a slightly off of analysts expectations, but so far, the stock indexes and commodities are holding good bids. The Dollar Index is down about 24 ticks, and that seems to be the focus of the trading world’s attention. So far the dollar is below the 77 resistance on the charts, with support right around the 66.65 level. 35 ticks of trading range to consider.

The stock indexes are all near or at their recent 9 month highs. SPZ ia at 1115, on its high […]

Brace yourselves. Just as every tv commentator fell in love with the phrase “sub-prime crisis” over the last 2 years, that is giving away to a new story du jour. All TV personalities are now budding forex trading experts, talking about “the dollar carry trade”. Thank god its kind of an esoteric topic for most people, but believe me, a year from now, everyone from President Obama to the dumbest of the dumb in Jay Lenno’s audience will be able to explain it to you.

Today’s 2 month high in the dollar index at 77.09 according to one reporter, “spooked the market”. Really, a 50 […]

The Grains are all lower in digestive trade after yesterday’s large rally and in the face of the the higher dollar, today. With 92 percent of the Corn in according to the USDA, there remains about 1BB bushells, half of which should get harvested this week. We will have to see the final numbers and weather of not these harvest issues will have long term bullish effects on corn prices. Also we may have seen over this last week, a situation where the large index funds have already re-allocated their crude oil longs into the grains. Or they possibly have done part of their package, […]

The Us Dollar Index, (DXY) continued to look bullish. Today it has posted a high at the 77.00 level. The high in March was 89.62, the most recent low was 74.94 on Nov 26th. That’s a spread of 7.34 points. Half way back for that spread is 82.28. If we keep this rally going, that’s a very good target for the bulls to shoot for.

Good Trading

With the Dow back at 10500, certain TARP funds being re-paid so banks can bonus out millions and not have to OK it with the Dem’s in Congress, today we got some inflation in the mix. PPI rose more than expected. There are more numbers out this week, and I am not going to list each one. If you’re curious, go to the cme.com web site and click on events calender. They have a nice listing, with times of release, as well as the expected consensus. That’s something I really don’t want to focus my time on.

In any event, the stocks moved lower, on […]

As we anticipate this week of filled with economic data, in general the markets welcomed the Christmas rally. The Dollar finished Monday’s session slightly lower, which supported the grains, metals and stock indexes finished in the green.

On the horizon Tuesday are the beginning of a rash of numbers, along with the first day of the FOMC meeting, which will end Wednesday at 115 with their announcement and minutes. At 730CST we have PPI, Empire State Manufacturing. At 755, the Redbook, at 815 Industrial Production, and at 12pm the Housing index. Any one of these could spike trading volume and set the computer worms […]

This Friday morning the US dollar index is down slightly, at 76.50, but the rest of the screen looks positive.
You have to remember these are holiday markets, and the trade will be thin. The Stock indexes are higher. SPZ had a high at 1114 and a low at 11095. Currently up 2.5 handles, and looking like it wants to challenge the 1116 level. DJZ is above the 10,500 level, with a low at 10498 and a high at 10,510. Not much of a trading range. In fact I did a double take when I checked. The FOMC meeting began today, and we have some […]

This Friday morning the US dollar index is down slightly, at 76.50, but the rest of the screen looks positive.
You have to remember these are holiday markets, and the trade will be thin. The Stock indexes are higher. SPZ had a high at 1114 and a low at 11095. Currently up 2.5 handles, and looking like it wants to challenge the 1116 level. DJZ is above the 10,500 level, with a low at 10498 and a high at 10,510. Not much of a trading range. In fact I did a double take when I checked. The FOMC meeting began today, and we have some […]

I was curious this evening, being a cold Saturday night with negative 10 windchill, so I looked at the specific numbers for the S&P move, just as I did for the Dow.
The October 2007 high print was 1565.

The March 09 low was 666.79 *How is that for you fans of the Omen movie… 666? Did that get any mention in the media? Kind of creepy…

Any how, the math, thankfully for my small brain, is easy. 1565.15 minus 666.79 gives us 898.36 …… Half of that figure, (the total down move from high tick to low tick) is 449.18…. Add that […]