Blog Archive

Just taking the first 12 weeks of 2015, the average weekly trading range for the Dow has been 500 points. The biggest range came on the first week of February, sparked by the January Unemployment number. That week DJM had a 920 point trading range. This current week has had the second widest trading range of 661 points… So FAR. I say so far because Friday we have a half day/ Good Friday. The Dept of Labor will release the March Unemployment figures. The bond futures market has the 10 year future at its 2 -1/2 month high. The market’s yield curve continues to be […]

< Another 200 point trading range today as we ready for Friday's Unemployment Report. Bonds Currencies Equities are all open. The metals and oil will be closed. The grains will be closed. Will we break out finally above 18000? Or below 17000? Don't think a 1000 point move on a Good Friday abbreviated market session is possible? Remember, 900 points is 5%. The only folks who continue to be blind to the percentages are TV and Radio News persons. Friday's unemployment figure might be a catalyst for the Fed to actually move instead of shadow boxing with Congress and Media pundits.

March 27, 2015 Written by Chris Robinson Corn: May corn settled down ¼ cent at $3.91. New crop CZ settled unchanged at $4.14- 3/4 . Corn had a quiet day in the wake of Thursday’s punch up to 5-week highs, which had May top out at $3.97 and December top out at $4.19 ¾. For the week, CK gained 6 cents and CZ gained 5 ½ cents. The funds were quiet today, and maintain a small estimated long position of just 11,000 contracts. This pales in comparison to their earlier position this year when they were long over 250K contracts. The 5-month low posted a […]

The record high in DJM just 3 weeks ago was 18188 today’s low was 17465. A 3rd grader can tell you that the swing from tip to trough was 723 points. Today’s low is the lowest tick in 7 weeks. For those of you in the Fear Camp, the low of the year so far came on February 2, 2015, posted at 17000. That was also the lowest tick for the Dow in 5-months. The next major low is 15,697, which came in October of 2014 1-1/2 years ago or 18 months, depending on your particular pleasure. Most rational analysts agree that 5% corrections are […]

New Crop Corn is worth looking at as we head into next Tuesday’a report. You can see the congestion we’ve had here near $4.17 and $4.20…. This level of congestion has come into play over the past 20 weeks. Certainly over the past 3 months, its been a significant level. Why? In my opinion, its due to the fact that $4.17 is the 38% retrace ment of 2014’s 1.45 melt down. The high? May 9th…. $5.09… That price was the peak for 2014 Marketing year for CZ15. Its the highest price we’ve seen in CZ15 for 18 months. Fast forward to the recent contract low […]

We had a nice snap back today in the grains. A weaker dollar today, combined with some talk of winter kill in Kansas wheat set the weak shorts running. What are weak short? Those who sold it late in the hole, probably on Wednesday’ 5-month lows in corn and beans. Funds remain short a bunch of Chicago Wheat, so it doesn’t take much buying on their part to get us these sharp bounces. Funds, over the past 2 weeks went from net long 80K contracts to short probably 30K contracts. Open interest grew by 90K contracts over the past 8 trading sessions. This was people […]

5 weeks ago we fell to 17000 in the dow and then rallied back to record highs 4 weeks later, picking up from 16962 up to 18270, a 1308 swing… Then we broke in 2 weeks, down to 17618 650 points… In the last 4 days, we rallied back 364 points. This article is particularly intended for a member of the panel last Friday who poo pooed 800 point moves… Granted, we have not had single day 800 point moves. But we have been moving in a 5% window which this chart outlines. My point was, 200 to 300 point moves every day are nothing […]

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