Blog Archive

Years ago, in the 1980’s a group of commodity traders in Chicago were targeted in the pit for illegal trades. I can’t remember exactly how many but at least a half dozen traders were fined, banned from the business, or actually went to the grey bar motel for breaking the “rules”… Open outcry trading was about transparency and market price discovery through an open auction.
The rules specifically prohibited brokers disclosing orders above or below the market to any traders in the pit, because that individual trader would then have had an unfair advantage with such prior knowledge.
Also, they were punished for pre-arranged trades, […]

Jan beans flirted with the long-term bearish trend line which extended all the way back to this Summer’s highs in June at 1103. In the last six trading sessions we have rallied 80cents from our 1- 1/2 month low at 952 just a week ago to today’s high at 1031. On the charts we have resistance now at 1050 and 1068.
In the Corn, we had similar action around its long term bear trend line as well, with 403 1/4 being the intersection today. For the afternoon we poked above it by a cent, but then settled below it at 401 3/4… Not as convincing […]

Wow, it was like watching paint dry, to have the SF go through that 1014 3/4 level…Once it did however, we had a nice pop up to 1021 level…Now that trend line resistance should become trend line support.
I have found that the most basic of technical analysis is usually the best, and this was a perfect instance.
I must say, I was surprised that we didn’t trade more around that trend line, but the day still has an hour and a half left, so we will see.
Over all, the action today has been relatively quiet, except for the grains.

Of course we […]

As of 938 AM CST, the high in SF is 1011 3/4… There is a trendline intersection at 1014 3/4. Watch that level as a potential fulcrom of activity today.
In the Corn, the intersection is the 403 1/4 area, and in the WZ, (Dec Wheat) we popped above the trend line yesterday, so we have support with the same trend line today at 551.
Watch these levels.
I will update the rest of the markets in about an hour.

Good Trading

Today, Monday the 16th was a day for the record books.
First in the Metals, we had Gold and Silver posting new all time highs and high settlements. In the US Stock Indexes, we had new 1-year highs and 1-year high settlements (Actually 13 Month highs, but 1 year makes more sense).

In fact, in the S&P Cash from the March 08 Lows at 666, we have rallied 547 handles to today’s high at 1,113. I wrote earlier in the day that I can’t imagine anyone at your 4th of July Picnic would have taken the over/under bet for these Stock Indexes.
I know no-one […]

Currently, Gold and Silver have made new all time highs.. Gold at 1143.40 and Silver at 18.45…From this action you have to start considering 20 dollar an oz Silver and 1,250 $/oz Gold.
Ironically, this occurs on the day when President Obama lands in China. There had been rumors of agreements, or pressure to have China let the Yuan float against all the world’s currencies…Perhaps this is the market’s way of anticipating the 2percent chance that something concrete will come out of this visit other than photo ops and discussions as to whether or not the President of the United States has to bow to […]

Gold and Silver have both posted new all time highs this morning after strong overnight action. SPZ and DJZ, the stock indexes, have made new 9 month highs as well, as it seems that the weakness in the dollar will continue to put US equities, as well as our commodities on sale for the rest of the world.
All the grains are currently higher as well, however, with the usual volatility, we have seen pull backs off of our early morning highs.
Today looks like a day to attempt to buy dips, or pullbacks in these markets.
As of 10:30 AM, CST, Gold has […]

Corn, Wheat, Beans are all higher so far tonight. In sympathy, apparently, with higher gold prices, as Gold pokes up to a new all time high at 1127.90… While the night is still young, and as Europe wakes up to a Monday Morning bullish momentum, I would be surprised if traders don’t push to get the 1130.00 if for no other reason than to hit that nice round number. If the pattern holds, however, once that print is posted, look for a 10 to 15 dollar down draft. All the way up, we have seen new all time highs met with sharp corrections… Its a […]

Early on here Sunday night, we have had a 7 cent trading range in Jan Beans, spurred mostly from one short covering order. On the screen 400 contracts traded at the high so far at 1001, with a low at 993, 7 cents below that high. The trade volume is posted next to each price on the screen, so obviously, the computer matched up all the buys and sells early on at 1001, and then there was a vacuum for 7 cents…
I have written in the past that this is the bane of electronic trading. Say what you want about open outcry, it worked […]

Oh my, so much for a quiet day. Lots of volatility in the grains with some two sided trade across the board.
To begin with, what a nutty day in Jan Beans (SF)… Opened higher, shot up to a new high for the week at 1009. For a moment I thought our trend line was going to come into play at the 1018 level… Another shattered bullish dream, though, as selling came in and drove us down inexorably to a day session low at 983 1/2, 26 cents off the high… For a moment in the afternoon, it looked as if we were going down […]