Blog Archive

Today could be sleepy. Certainly we have had a big week with fund re-balancing evident as they came for the corn and beans, while exiting longs in Crude Oil and Gold.
Most likely we will have continued choppy, restless trade with a few opportunities for some profitable trades.
For now the markets look relatively quiet, and being Friday coming into the Holidays, I would expect thinly traded markets across the board.
Watch the Stocks for any weakness, as they are vulnerable to a correction lower. How much lower depends on which bearish advisor you like to read the most.
Corn, Wheat And Beans will be […]

Good evening, I just wanted to apologise because my first posting after the close was totally wrong. I was writing it with about ten other things going on at the same time, and I got a couple major items wrong. If you happened to read it and were confused, you were not the only one. I got some interesting email from readers.

That reminds me, if you like what I write, spread the word, leave a comment, send me an email, whatever. I am available for any question(s) you might have. I live in Chicago, on CST, so if you are in a different time […]

We’ve now had a 13 cent pull back off of the highs in Jan Beans, and a minor correction off of the day’s rally action in corn and wheat as well. As we head into the close, I would look at the 986 level in SF, as it was a recent high.. If that can hold, then the rally remain intact. We have seen some hedger selling coming in to take advantage of these higher prices, and as we got closer to the ten dollar level in the Beans, the hedgers showed up. We will have to see if the fund money can overcome the […]

Wow, these funds really came for the grains today… We have had over a 30 cent rally in Soybeans alone up 22 cents right now at 995.. We posted an early low at 961 1/2, rallied 13 cents like nothing, hesitated at 83, then smoked higher on buy stops above the recent high at 86 1/2… Funds are definitely coming like gang busters… Wheat is up 7 cents at 539 and Corn is up 3 cents at 397…It looks as if the funds bought corn last week, now they are doing the beans, and next week, most likely they will come for the wheat if […]

One quick note, this blog has an area for comments and questions. You can also email me with comments or questions if you like…

I wrote last night that I thought there would be resistance every 25 dollars on the way up to wherever the top will be in Gold..I picked that number, because its an easy, round target as we trade up through virgin price territory…We posted a high today, so far, at 1,123.40….Nice to see someone has a sense of humor to put out that .40 print… In any event, that was close enough to 1,125 for sellers to come in and nail […]

Before I go to bed, I always look at the overnight markets… So far, in early trading, only the Gold continues it onward and upward march higher… as of this writing its sitting near its “new” high at 1122.30… As we are in virgin territory, it is honestly difficult to predict at what point we will get some selling pressure to cool this market’s jets higher…I would continue to look for resistance at 1,125, 1,150, 1,175, and so forth in 25 dollar increments… Obviously the next big psychological number will be 1,500… In the dollar Index, we have seen the 75 dollar area be violated, […]

The grains were unable to hold onto early gains this morning, as hedgers used the higher prices to lock in profits. We had another afternoon buy program, evident if you look at the 5 minute charts. Around 1145 we had a bounce in all the grains, most likely due to more index fund buying, in sympathy with gold’s strong finish, and the continued weakness in the dollar.
Apparently the whole world is now short the dollar, so it seems to me that while they may be right, that market is ripe for an ugly correction to punish shorts who have come to the game late […]

I should have known this morning that it was a good idea to fade the new high,if only for a scalp. I awoke to my morning radio ‘financial commentator’ breathlessly talking about the new highs in Gold… And, I still think there will be resistance at every round number on the way up, probably on the nickle and dime, because that’s how people focus on these new high numbers, so 1120, 1125, 1130, etc, etc, etc. Each new high will be heralded until there are no more new highs, and right now the highs are being fueled by momentum investors. These are the same boys […]

I should have known this morning that it was a good idea to fade the new high,if only for a scalp. I awoke to my morning radio ‘financial commentator’ breathlessly talking about the new highs in Gold… And, I still think there will be resistance at every round number on the way up, probably on the nickle and dime, because that’s how people focus on these new high numbers, so 1120, 1125, 1130, etc, etc, etc. Each new high will be heralded until there are no more new highs, and right now the highs are being fueled by momentum investors. These are the same boys […]

This morning was a perfect example of being flexible on a trading plan. If you look at my first blog this morning, I was very bullish…That was warning sign number one. By nature I am always bearish, and for me to flip and get all bulled up should have been an early indication…As to why I am a perma bear, its because as a day trader/scalper, which is what my M.O. was for over a decade, being short always gives the quickest reward when you are correct. All markets move lower about 3 times as fast as they rally, unless its a rally off of […]