Blog Archive

Our recent low in SF was 551 1/2 on the daily charts…Subtract that from the recent high at 1022 1/2 and you get 71 cents.. half of that 71 cents is 35 roughly which gets us to our high at 86… Look at today’s high….Should have been a seller there…It was good for a ten cent profit..
FYI, I did not sell it there… I thought we would have buying today off of the gold and stocks…
Just a quick note the importance of staying simple and trading 1/2 way back moves…

On that note, I did some quick and dirty math… Call the high […]

Wow, New highs in gold at 1115.80..SPZ at 9 month highs, above the 1,100 level…Ditto for DJZ up at the 10,300 level…Corn up a penny overnight, Wheat up 7 cents and Beans up 10, looking at the 980 level…Obviously we are ignoring USDA numbers and going with the commodity speculative flow where we see money pouring into Corn as a hedge against a correction in the outside markets.
Dollar is at a 15 year low, and now it seems that every local newscaster on the 6 o’clock news is a currency speculator/commentator…Come on people, that used to be the job of Lew Dobbs alone…Anyhow, Nothing […]

World Oil Stocks are currently close to what they were 11 years ago when we had ten dollar a barrel oil.. Remember those day’s? So if the stocks are the same, then the current prices have been reached via 1) currency devaluation of the US Dollar, and 2) Inflows of speculative funds from all types of “investment vehicles”…With the huge run up in Oil prices over the past 3 months, the huge 3700 point rally in the Dow since last March’s scariness down at 6500 up to today’s high at 10,260, we have a situation now where we are seeing funds flow into Corn on […]

The grains had a very choppy and frustrating day today.. We opened with ten cent moves in the first 2 minutes..Drifted to afternoon lows, and then trended sharply higher through the afternoon, led by an afternoon rally which had beans rally from 953 up to 973, then break 8 cents into the close on hedging to settle at 965 area.
In CZ, we had a trade between 391 and 381 in the first 2 minutes, drifted lower to 380 and then screamed higher from 380 up to a trading session high at 397…Some hedging on the close gave us a settlement around 394… In WZ, […]

All my commodities are in the red this morning. Corn Wheat and Beans, Soymeal and Soy Oil all are under pressure.
The USDA numbers came out, slightly friendly for corn, and slightly negative for beans and wheat.
We have already seen Jan beans test the 953 level this morning, and as I said before, longer term, it looks like we need to go down and test the 933 to 935 level, and if that doesn’t catch a bid, then 900 and 890 are definite possibilities…Above the market there is a trendlne resistance at 1014-18, but with the crop 75 percent harvested, Carry over raised back […]

Gold has a new high print at 1111.70 posted this afternoon…Silver was higher, but at 17.80, its still a bit off from its high ten days ago at 18.15…Crude Oil traded with a low at 7777 and a high at 80.19, settling at 79.30… I will probably see gasoline prices up ten cents on the way home… Like I’ve said before, the only people I know who watch markets closer than trader’s, long haul truckers,and Airline Executives, have to be the owners of the gas stations in my area..

I looked at a weekly chart in the Dow Futures. The weekly major low last March […]

We had another new high this morning in Gold at 1111.70, we have also seen SPZ hug the trend-line I pointed out to you several posts ago..Its always nice to have the right technical analysis as you look for trades…SPZ is currently flirting with the 1085 level, with the contract within a stones throw of its old high at 1099…If the SPZ can pop above 1100 with a strong increase in volume, then we should see continued short covering rally fueled by frustrated new longs who missed the rally up from last March Lows… As the year ends, money managers will be dressing up their […]

I can’t imagine this is a bullish item. I took a break this morning and surfed the cable shows. One I use as a reverse indicator (I will not be specific for fear of issues)…
It seemed to me that I could have closed my eyes and imagined I was back in 2004…Talk of Buyouts and Mergers and Acquisition, Interviewing stock analysts on buyout targets…Apparently, we are going to whistle through the grave yard, hoping that the rally holds…
It makes me just hesitate a little, because generally, those shows are lagging indicators.
I wrote last week about how at the BOTTOM last March, at […]

I can’t imagine this is a bullish item. I took a break this morning and surfed the cable shows. One I use as a reverse indicator (I will not be specific for fear of issues)…
It seemed to me that I could have closed my eyes and imagined I was back in 2004…Talk of Buyouts and Mergers and Acquisition, Interviewing stock analysts on buyout targets…Apparently, we are going to whistle through the grave yard, hoping that the rally holds…
It makes me just hesitate a little, because generally, those shows are lagging indicators.
I wrote last week about how at the BOTTOM last March, at […]

Wow, turned on the screen this morning and every commodity I follow and both stock indexes are sharply higher..
The Dow is above 1100 currently, the SPZ is at 1080, hugging that Trend Line I wrote about yesterday…
Jan beans had a 20 cent rally last night, trading to a low at 951 with a high at 971…I would look for that trading range to be explored today…We may see a short covering rally after so much selling went on last week, however, it still looks like the bears are in control and eventually want to go test the 900 level some time in the […]