Blog Archive

For years when the bond futures pits actually had live traders doing price discovery through open outcry, many large traders would only show up for the monthly unemployment day. Generally the bonds would break or rally violently usually a point or a point and a half depending on that number. There truly was nothing like standing in that pit or in that room at 7:29:55 right before the number was released.

A palpable feeling of anticipation, like waiting for a tidal wave to ride if you were a surfer… trade skillfully and you had a great opportunity.. trade stupidly, and you’d wonder how long you […]

November beans tried to rally, fell below the 935 level and have moved sharply lower below the 918 level…Dec Corn is below 340 and Dec Wheat is below 450.. Yesterday’s bounce up looks to have been short covering driven, and more of a technical bounce in the face of the fundamentals.’
Also we are watching the outside markets pull us down. Dow is looking like it will pierce the 9500 level… and the s&p’s are 18 handles lower at 1033…. Looks like a flush lower momentum could weigh across the board today.
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Yesterday saw strong rally led by a drop in the dollar on a correction, a strong rally in the crude, fueled by a surprising drop in gasoline supply on hand, which fueled a rally in the grains led by soy oil. We also saw a nice short covering rally in the wheat at the end of the day as longer term shorts covered losing positions and forced Dec wheat above the key 450 level on the charts.

We had a nice intra day rally in stocks, and even though the indexes settled lower we recovered most of the earlier day’s losses.
As we speak, the […]

Put on your rally caps, apparently…
An across the board rally in all commodities brought prices higher after mid-morning in the grains.
We saw early weakness in Nov Beans from the higher stocks report, but those concerns quickly dropped away with a 17 cent rally up to the resistance I talked about early, the 930 level. 931 was the high print, and the SX settled 5 cents lower from that high at 926. Both Corn and Wheat rallied as well, all in sympathy with pretty much rallies across all spectrum today…

The stock indexes rebounded sharply rallying over 150 pts in the Dow from […]

Nov beans broke early on the stocks report showing higher than anticipated stocks. We then quickly rallied a nickle, consolidated around the 915 to 918 level, and are currently rallying, seeming poised to punish fundamental traders who got short on the opening on the stocks report. Longer term, prices look like they should go lower, however, in the mean time we are looking for 20 to 30 cent rallies to punish the shorts.
Markets like these chop around attempting to dislodge position traders.
That is why i believe these 20 cent run ups are good short term selling opportunities for 3 to 5 cent […]

Last night saw a flush down to 912 in grains followed by a bounce back to 923 1/2. Wheat looks bad on the charts after WZ settled below 450 yesterday.. The short covering rally in the corn was a bit confusing, with CZ bouncing 5 cents higher after posting a new low… Today’s reaction to FC stone and the stock reports should give better sense as to where these grains want to go..

SX still needs to get above 935 level to get bullish if you look at the charts.
In the stock indexes, there is some bearish pressure today, Spoos are down 11 […]

Another head fake in the grains. CZ traded up to 47 then just broke down to the 40 level. Nov Beans remain hemmed in at the 930 level, poking its head up there and then gradually melting down to the 16 to 17 level again…This looks to be a trading range sideways chop, which will give you opportunities if you don’t concentrate on picking tops or bottoms… Look at the ranges, and if they pivot off of the resistance go with the direction of the move.
The Dow and the S7P continue to trade sideways to higher, climbing the wall of pessimism and worry…classic bear […]

A little concern about some rain in the forecast, which may slow down harvest, some rumors of corn problems with scattered reports of blight… Also some rumors about yields not being as high as some had thought, all combined to firm up corn today…
Wheat, for the time being, looks technically like it will defend the 450 level. Perhaps, Wheat looks to have the best possibility of a substantial sustained rally, while corn and beans look still as if the crop is large and getting larger, a fact which should cut through the noise and let us concentrate on the fundamentals which point to lower […]