Blog Archive

I felt yesterday we’d get the last 200 points in the Dow futures we needed to get that 10%. I was wrong. A couple time we sold the market and then were stopped out for losses on rallies. In this environment, I believe options are better risk reward than the futures, because of the volatility created by hft programs. It seems no matter where you put you stops trading futures, the worm programs will finds you . 2 ticks or 102 ticks, they will seek you out. The options allow you to take a position and not get stopped out. Moving forward, I have made […]

I felt yesterday we’d get the last 200 points in the Dow futures we needed to get that 10%. I was wrong. A couple time we sold the market and then were stopped out for losses on rallies. In this environment, I believe options are better risk reward than the futures, because of the volatility created by hft programs. It seems no matter where you put you stops trading futures, the worm programs will finds you . 2 ticks or 102 ticks, they will seek you out. The options allow you to take a position and not get stopped out. Moving forward, I have made […]

The Fed’s James Bullard suggested that the QE might start up , or never officially end as its supposed to at the end of this Month. Of course, many had anticipated a fed rate hike in March. That has all been shelved, with 1) the slow down in Europe 2) the German’s reluctance to ease 3) China apparently slowing down 4) The drop in oil prices, suggesting a world wide slow down and finally 5) Ebola. If Ebola gets into the heads of the US public and they decide to stay home and stop shopping, then we have a slow down because the consumer is […]

The Fed’s James Bullard suggested that the QE might start up , or never officially end as its supposed to at the end of this Month. Of course, many had anticipated a fed rate hike in March. That has all been shelved, with 1) the slow down in Europe 2) the German’s reluctance to ease 3) China apparently slowing down 4) The drop in oil prices, suggesting a world wide slow down and finally 5) Ebola. If Ebola gets into the heads of the US public and they decide to stay home and stop shopping, then we have a slow down because the consumer is […]

The low so far over night in the S&P was 1815. 2 ticks from yesterday’s low at 1813. The low in the Dow futures so far was 15785. 20 ticks from yesterday’s low at 15769. The return to volatility will give opportunity, because typically, we will trade through a 200 to 300 point trading range in the Dow. In the late 90’s and early 2000’s we had 200 to 300 point trading ranges every day and we’d trade through them in general, at least 2 times. So its a good trading environment if you pick your spots carefully. Technicals are your crutch, and if you […]

For all the “I’ll buy a 10% correction” crowd today was your chance. The low in the S&P December futures at 1813 was 201 points from the record high tick at 2014. We are still well above the February low at 1712. and the October 2013 low at 1655.

For all the “I’ll buy a 10% correction” crowd today was your chance. The low in the S&P December futures at 1813 was 201 points from the record high tick at 2014. We are still well above the February low at 1712. and the October 2013 low at 1655.

The Dow futures were down to 15964 on the low, that’s 1315 off the record high at 17279, for a 7.6% correction. Missed the 10 percent, so far. The S&P Dec futures bottomed so far, at 1830. 184 handles; That’s 9.1%. I have never seen the bonds up 5 handles. Early on the 830 AM bell, we had that in the 30 year. That spike looked like a liquidation trade. Someone’s risk meter was pegged, and the computers did a GMO order- GET ME OUT. Currently, we are 26 handles off the lows in the S&P. and 100 points off the lows in the Dow. […]

Money flow looks to be going 1) to bonds 2) to grains 3)downside to the stock indexes. Remember, I’ve been talking about the 10% correction: that’s 15,550 in the Dow futures, that’s just 450 points away. Then we have 1812 , which is just 26 handles away from current levels. as of this writing. Dow futures low is 16002, S&P low is 1835. We seem destined for the 10% correction, probably before lunch. CER

Money flow looks to be going 1) to bonds 2) to grains 3)downside to the stock indexes. Remember, I’ve been talking about the 10% correction: that’s 15,550 in the Dow futures, that’s just 450 points away. Then we have 1812 , which is just 26 handles away from current levels. as of this writing. Dow futures low is 16002, S&P low is 1835. We seem destined for the 10% correction, probably before lunch. CER