Blog Archive
Harvest running at 17 % corn and 15% for beans as we chew through huge crop
This is a huge crop. Harvest is going slower because its so big. We are behind historical rates of progress for harvest at this time of year. Typically we don’t see a harvest low until we are at least 50% harvested. That looks like its going to be 10 days away. Right now it costs 6500 dollars to rent a rail car in the Dakota’s to move grain. That’s a huge basis to fight. So what’s a farmer to do? I’d sell into any decent rally. CZ rallied to 3.34. Any punch up to 3.45 to 3.50 would be a harvest miracle, in my opinion, […]
Unemployment below 6%
Nothing like hind sight trading to keep you humble. Yesterday it looked like the market might run down in anticipation of the Unemployment report today. Yesterday’s low missed a perfect 62% retracement of the 1,134 point rally from the August lows. I have to admit I thought we were going to take out that retracement yesterday and then test that 7-month old T-line. So much for having the big idea. In the end, my analysis from two days ago was the correct one. Another dip to buy. 16711 was a key 50% retracement. 16578 would have been the next target. Yesterday’s low came within 10 […]
7-month old Trend line is in play in the Dow Futures
This is a major trend line which might come into play, The bears might get their correction finally. Certainly keep this trend-line in mind when initiating any positions, bullish or bearish. CER
Dow Index post an 8 week low. Finds some solace with Dr. Fibonacci
Dr. Fibonacci Says….. 16846 is the 38% retracement of the 6 week, 1,135 point rally which started on Aug 8th 6-month low down at 16145. Half way back, is 16,712. Thee levels are important, because every trader out there looks at them, even if they lie publicly and say they don’t. Remember, 172 points is a 1% move. If you are going to light your hair on fire and run down the street every time the Dow moves 200 points, I think you’ll be in a padded cell by Christmas , along with all of the talking heads on the financial shows. Their behavior is […]
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Will 2% correction morph into something more in the stock index futures?
Stocks are down on the Chinese Riots? Really, this is the catalyst that’s going to get us a 10% correction? I am in dis belief that this is anything other than end of month profit taking. Check your calendar. Tuesday is that last business day of the month and the last business day of the quarter. 6 Days ago we had a record high. 6 days people. 17279 in the dow. We still have not taken out last Thurday’s low and that was just a 2 1/2 % correction off the top. Support below ? check out the August low at 16839. That happens to […]
Important Technical Levels for Row Crops
Grain Re-Cap 9/19/2014
September 19, 2014 Corn: December corn settled down 6 ¾ cents at $3.31 ½ which is a new contract low and 4 year low settlement. For the week corn lost 7 cents a bushel. Corn posted its high for the session in the overnight electronic market. Once the 8:30 AM pit bell rang, corn resumed its slow grind lower. The weather report continues to be benign and should favor farmers as they harvest. Early yield reports are in a word, impressive. Bulls continue to argue the FSA acres. However, doing the math based on the yields still gets us to a plus 4 billion bushel […]
December Chicago Wheat Tests $5.00
Corn: December corn ended down 2-1/2 cents at a new contract and 4-year low settlement of $3.38 ½. For the week, CZ lost 17 ½ cents. The USDA effectively squelched any remaining bullish hopes with an estimated production of 14.395 billion bushels and a national average yield of 171.7 bushel/acre. Eyes will be on the weather and the actual impact of a projected frost. Sunday night’s first minutes of electronic trade might have some fireworks if there is any real damage. On the 30th we will have another USDA report giving updated ending stocks. 116K MT of corn was reported sold to unknown, presumably china. […]