Blog Archive
USDA Grim Reaper for the Bulls : Beans, Corn , Wheat all take a header
USDA found an extra 130 million bushels of corn, as they finally reflect a decrease in feed usage. New crop acres at 91.6 we off by 80K acres.
However, the biggest shocker was the bean acres. The average guess was 82 million acres. We added 3 million, roughly; takes us to 86 Million acres planted.
At trend line yields, that projects to a huge carry out.
The spec long corn took it on the chin, but we still have 25 days of action on that. I want to hold it through the July 4th weekend.
If you are a producer and have not sold, […]
USDA in 2 hours
Latest info I saw suggested that the American Farmer still has 30% of the 13 crop in the bin, unsold. For 2014 the estimate was less than 10% sold.
Dupont released its quarterly figures and announced that there were many more sales of bean seed than corn seed.
Fundamentally, this suggests a bearish futures for new crop prices, as long as we get timely rains.
In 2010, at this time of the year we looked great. Then mother nature shut off the rain and we had the drought of 2012.
Since NO ONE, not Al Gore, Not Al Roker can predict the weather more than […]
Get Ready for the USDA Report – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about the upcoming USDA Report and what to expect.
Where is Support for the Dow?
Above is a chart of June Dow futures: There are some “what ifs” under the market for bears looking for breaks.
First Support comes in at 16600. Second T-line comes at 16450 and the Third, longer term T-line projects an intersection at 16000. The high was 16962. A test of 1600 would be a 5 1/2 percent correction.
I have NO IDEA if we are going to test these levels. The grind seems to be inexorably higher for the Stock Index’s as money continues to come in every two […]
Pressure on Corn – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about the pressure on corn and how China is not accepting our DDGS anymore.
Time to Fade the Grain Sell off?
We escaped the Spring and Early Summer without the much ballyhooed planting delays. Its June 9th, and some of the remaining grain perma bulls were touting an early freeze coming in late August?
The weatherman can’t even get past the next 72 hours with accuracy much less 72 days, in my opinion.
When its all boiled down, we still have plenty of time for some weather issue. Remember 2012? we were on pace for a big crack lower in corn, until Mother Nature turned off the water fountain after July 1st.
So is there still a possibility for a weather issue to save the bull’s […]
Grain Hedgers Update
Written by Chris Robinson
Corn: July corn settled up 10 cents at $4.59. For the week, CN dropped 5 ¾ cents, while new crop CZ gained ¼ cent. CZ fell to a new 5-month low today, but then rallied back impressively clawing back 12 cents from that low to settle up 10 ½ cents at $4.57 ½. CZ posted a large outside-up-day on the daily charts. In the past 20 trading days CZ dropped 69 ½ cents, or 14%. The market vaporized 85% of its 5-month, 82 cent rally. […]
Watching the July/Nov Spread – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about the grains, Goldman roll and key support levels in beans.
Significant Trend Lines In SX14
November Beans failded at 12.43 and again at 12.25. These two trend lines are long term and should not be ignored by bulls or bears.
IF SX can’t settle above $12.50 and turn the trend back to neutral/bullish, in my opinion, there is a lot of downside risk.
I’m not a dyed in the wool bear or bull, so if you don’t agree, please save the nasty emails. If you’ve read my stuff, I’m much more concerned about making $ versus being “right”. For now I want to sell rallies, but if we settle above 12.50, I’d re-evaluate my bearish opinion.
See Chart Below and […]