Since the January 4 year low down at $4.35 CZ had a nice 82 cent rally, capped off at $ 5.17 back on April 9th, which was an 8-month high. Round about those highs a couple of “well respected’ grain brokers started touting 5.50 corn and assured their clients that 5.00 corn was a thing of the past.
That alone, in my opinion, was a glaring sell signal.
First, note the blue trend-line. If CZ14 is unable to settle above that trend line, that is bearish technically.
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If you’ve followed my blog, you can see I have not really changed my opinion on the Stock Indexes. I started trading them actively in 1998 in the Dow Jones Pit and have been through a lot of different markets. I traded through the Dot com bubble, The 911 attack, and I watched in 2009 as the Dow dropped from 14300 to 6500 and the S&P traded to its low in the futures of 666.
So I base my opinion on that experience. I also should tell you that I graduated from Colgate University in 1988, just 6 months after the 87 crash when I […]
The WN 700 put purchased for 20 cents is now trading at 33 as of 9:07 AMCST.
The SN 1400 put is back to being worth 10 cents after paying 13.
The CN 5.00 put purchased for 10 is trading at 15.
The funds are long 160K beans and 260K corn. In my opinion, the rubber band got stretched way to far to the bull side.
A sharply lower settlement today could set off another 2 days of liquidation. Unlike most speculative traders, professional fund managers do not hesitate to exit losers.
Its early in the day, but if you have more than 3 […]
Sentiment is bullish pre-number.
Every producer I speak to is not concerned about lower prices. Typically, with CZ near 8-month highs, SX holding near 10-month highs and WN at a 10-month high, who could blame them.
With the funds long and with sentiment cautiously bullish, this might be a good time to head the opposite of the herd.
A July Corn 5.00 put for 10 cents a bushel is a good risk reward for the next 42 days.
A WN wheat 720 put for 20 cents a bushel is a good risk reward.
A SN bean 1400 put for 13 cents or a 14.30 puts […]
Written by Chris Robinson
Corn: July corn settle down 7 ½ cents at $4.99 ½, which is a 2 week low settlement December settled down $4.94, also a 2 week low settlement. Corn posted its high during overnight trade, dropped a quick 7 cents in the first fifteen minutes of trade, grinded lower through the afternoon. The funds sold an estimated 9,000 contracts of corn. The mid-day weather forecast called for less rain and warmer temps, across the Northern plains and the Western Corn belt which should provide a […]
Corn: May corn settled up 5 ¾ cents at a 3-week high settlement of $5.07. However, this settlement was only ½ cent below its 7-month high settlement, posted on April 1st. December corn settled up 3-1/2 cents at 5.06 ¼, also a fresh 3-week high settlement. This settlement in the December was also just ½ cent below its 7-month high settlement, posted on April 4th. For the week, CK gained 12 ¼ cents while CZ gained 9 ½ cents. This week was notable because we saw corn post 1-month […]
Stock indexes holding in there after a weekend of non-action and more lead flying in the Ukraine.
Obviously, the market has made the rational decision that the likely hood of NATO or the US EVER putting boots on the ground in Ukraine is about as likely as Richard Nixon running for President in 2016.
What is interesting is the failure of the trend-line in Gold.
And , finally the failure of the wheat market to hold its “risk premium” that had built up over the last few weeks on Ukraine worries.
Apparently, the Easter Bunny left the hard data in trader’s baskets yesterday, reflecting the […]