Blog Archive

Stock indexes holding in there after a weekend of non-action and more lead flying in the Ukraine.
Obviously, the market has made the rational decision that the likely hood of NATO or the US EVER putting boots on the ground in Ukraine is about as likely as Richard Nixon running for President in 2016.

What is interesting is the failure of the trend-line  in Gold.
And ,  finally the failure of the wheat market to hold its “risk premium” that had built up over the last few weeks on Ukraine worries.
Apparently, the Easter Bunny left the hard data in trader’s baskets yesterday,  reflecting the […]

With the Dow at 16,000, is a 1300 pt trading range that ridiculous?  I don’t think so.  That’s plus or minus 8%.  4% up, 4% Down.
Looking at the chart below,  since 11/7/13, roughly the last 5 months, we’ve been between 15,500 and 16,500.  Call it really a solid 1,000 pts. 
Granted in February, we dove below 15,500,  which got the bears on the warpath.  I distinctly remember people calling for Dow 14,800.  Which would have been the much anticipated holy grail of the “10% correction”.  Super bears were touting a break of 3200 pts, taking us down to 13,300?
One thing is for sure,  YMM is trading sideways,  […]

Volatility in April Gold has us testing a decent trend line. Today’s low so far just kisses the trendline below.

NO, TRENDLINES DON’T ALWAYS WORK. Agreed. 
YES, THERE’S A CHANCE WE SETTLE BELOW THIS T-LINE and then you can’t be long.
ON the first test, however, its a place to look at a long spec.
The decision is yours.

Charts are only useful if they help you make good trades.  I like getting long here against this T-line.
If it fails, run hard and run fast and […]

SpM Contract high  one week ago today. That’s right,  Its been exactly 1 week.  Today’s low as of this writing is 1809, but we’ll probably get an 1800 print.  That’s a whopping 3 percent correction.

1674 would be a 10% correction that bears have been praying for over the 4 months.

 
On this chart, the bottom of the channel is 1781.  We might be there next week if the bears get their teeth into this market finally.  They tried in February, but only got a 7% […]

Both June S&P and June Dow futures have rallied back to those trend lines I pointed out on Monday.
Act accordingly, but they give a good level for trade entries. For both Bulls and Bears.  Everyone talks about technical being insignificant.  I guarantee everyone out there is looking at this T-line.

Above is the Dow T-line to watch.

April of 2013 June14 nasdaq futures were on their heels at 2716.  Fast forward through a 1,017 pt rally over 12 months.  All the while every one saying “no,  “don’t buy it” no, “its over done”  no, “its smoke and mirrors”.  If you listened to those bears now, I guess after a 4 session 214 point correction, they are finally proven “right”?  if you were short this market all last year trying to sell the top that was the wrong move. So after a 4 day correction, be careful jumping in and getting short, only to set yourself up for getting stopped out on a […]

16285 is the Trend Line Intersection Today.
Its a pivot.
Be aware of how we settle against this t-line today.
In my opinion,  too many people are falling all over themselves trying to sell the top here. They’ve been at it for 15 months.  They have gotten a couple single digit corrections,  but in the end have been chased out of every attempt to sell this market.
At some point,  we’ll get the correction. I agree.  But in the mean time, I think you buy dips with tight […]

Both the June Dow and S&P contracts posted new all time highs today.  Not coincidentally, we are less than 16 hours away from Friday’s Un-enjoyment figure.   The average guess is 170 to 200K new jobs.  The buls are predicting 250K new jobs.
Since we are trading the futures market, one would have to agree that this information has been digested and priced into current levels.

If you ‘ve been reading my blog for the last year,  I’ve commented that the grind higher continues in the face of a lot of bearish sentiment.  There is still a bunch of $ sitting on the sidelines.  This even […]