March Dow Futures Above : Challenging its Contract high. What’s interesting ? The more narrow Dow index of 30 stocks has not been able to take out the High posted 12/31/13. 16540. Friday’s high tick was 16508. Is this a top? I think if we settle above this level, it opens up the door to 17,000 as a nice round number target. Money flow has continued to support stocks, even in the face of Geop political issues in the Ukraine. The market has gotten bad news from there and […]
We get grain numbers out today. We’ve had a grinding 2 dollar rally in old crop beans, 1 dollar rally in old crop corn and wheat.. Open interest has dropped on this rally, meaning its been shorts covering and exiting the open interest. A market rallying on declining open interest is not a sign of an underlying market trend that has legs. Instead, it is more of a relief rally as traders with loser’s on reluctantly exit.
We recently read of a large HFT fund liquidate after an 11 million dollar debit.
Considering that they probably began the year with 15 to 20 million […]
While the Fed raised worries with talk of raising rates in the future, should unemployment stay below 6.5%, in the long run it might be the best thing for this market to normalize.
We have had interest rates near zero for 5 years now. Flash back to 2009, March with the S&P at 666, the Dow at 6500 and a complete liquidity crisis.
60 months later, the indexes have more than doubled. 2013 saw 30% returns in the market, while the “inflation” hedge ( long commodities and gold) had a negative 30% return.
The S&P is in a nice channel upward going back to December […]
While the Fed raised worries with talk of raising rates in the future, should unemployment stay below 6.5%, in the long run it might be the best thing for this market to normalize.
We have had interest rates near zero for 5 years now. Flash back to 2009, March with the S&P at 666, the Dow at 6500 and a complete liquidity crisis.
60 months later, the indexes have more than doubled. 2013 saw 30% returns in the market, while the “inflation” hedge ( long commodities and gold) had a negative 30% return.
The S&P is in a nice channel upward going back to December […]
We’ had a 6 percent down move in the SPH; We had a 7.9% down move in the Dow Jones. We got a bit of a bounce; that bounce got the bulls feeling better about things.
I have upside targets of 1775 and then 1789 in SPH if we continue to rally. 15740 and 15890 if we get the bounce in the Dow.
The initial reaction to the number will be violent. Its really a coin flip.
My own personal bias is there is another leg down so we get the full 10% correction lower;
Because of that, although I have a profitable long position, I […]
The low on October 9th was 1633. The record high was 12/31/13 at 1846.
Yesterday we finally found support at the 1740 level, which was the 50% retracement. For now it looks like we’ve stopped the bleeding lower.
That could change should 1740 fail on another test lower Next stop below would be 1715 should that happen.
A lot of bears have sub 1700 in their sights. That remains to be seen, however. Friday’s unemployment number could be the catalyst for a test of that level, or […]
The low on October 9th was 1633. The record high was 12/31/13 at 1846.
Yesterday we finally found support at the 1740 level, which was the 50% retracement. For now it looks like we’ve stopped the bleeding lower.
That could change should 1740 fail on another test lower Next stop below would be 1715 should that happen.
A lot of bears have sub 1700 in their sights. That remains to be seen, however. Friday’s unemployment number could be the catalyst for a test of that level, or […]
Looking at a longer=term weekly chart, March S&P futures we posted a low at 1357.50 in December of 2012l In October of 2013, we ticked 1633.50. The next intersection point on that support trend line is 1746. We settled at 1763. Roughly another 20 handles of air beneath this market. Please look at the chart below
Looking at a longer=term weekly chart, March S&P futures we posted a low at 1357.50 in December of 2012l In October of 2013, we ticked 1633.50. The next intersection point on that support trend line is 1746. We settled at 1763. Roughly another 20 handles of air beneath this market. Please look at the chart below
This is a daily chart of Feb 13 Silver. 1703 was the high on 1/23/13 That’s the first part of the T-Line I am looking at. The second hit is the August high at 1428. We hit it 3 more times on October 28,29 and 30 right at the 1360 level.
Every rally has a short half-life. About a month ago, I wrote two or 3 entries about making a stand at 1200 we settled 4 times below that key in late December.
we were stopped out of […]