The Wheat Corn Spread had come back 1/2 way. I am looking at buying wheat selling corn , putting the spread on looking for it to widen back scale in buying between $2.15 and $2.00. Look for a bounce back out to $2.30 to 2.45.
That is all.
I wouldn’t go hog wild on this, but I think its worth a look for a pretty speculative trade. Its dicey trying to buy a bottom, but wheat is back down within 12 cents of its recent 15 month […]
Bean speculative longs worked well.
SF rallied to a 1-1/2 month low and has come back nicely from the low’s pre-report.
Tomorrow I’ll write more about my grain ideas.
I don’t believe we will reach CZ4.50 prior to December options expiration in 10 days.
CER
Busy day today so this will be brief.
USDA was bearish but not as bearish as a lot of folks had been predicting. You can look at all the break down of the data yourself. There are plenty of good sources out there, and I am really not going to reiterate 6 pages of data.
Key points are 1) lowered corn acres, balanced out higher yield 160.4 yield on lower acres. USDA lowered acres 2million. also USDA increased feed usage by 100 million bushels, and increased exports of 175 million. My biggest bearish concern? They increased world wide carry by 900 million bushels.
As for […]
Corn: December corn closed down 3 ¾ cents at $4.21 ¼ which is the lowest settlement in 39 months. Corn had a very light trade overnight, tried to rally for the first 20 minutes, posting a high at $4.26, and then began a slow grind down to new lows. The $4.25 area had been support. The next level on the charts is $4.17 posted on August 12, 2010. After that we are looking at the contract low of $3.98 ¼ posted on June 29, 2010. Today, China and Brazil […]
Break Down as follows: August Low in SF? 1169 September High 1406 1/4. Half way back? $12.87
62% retracement– $12.60
Today we settled at 12.50 1/4….
Between now and Friday the contrarian play would be to take a long position.
Every one on the planet is bearish.
Food for thought.
We could rally back to $13.00, hurt all the weak shorts… squeeze them out and then resume the down trend.
We’d have to get above $13.40 to change the trend back to bullish. so… I’ll […]
Today’s RFDTV Livestock video comment
Today’s RFDTV Grain Video
http://bcove.me/au0j3e3j
Looking ahead for next week the biggest feature will be USDA report on Friday the 8th. The big enchilada probably until the always nasty January report.
what to do?
First
1)funds still long beans 2)still short wheat and corn.
2) The long bean play is looking worse and worse. We settled under the 200 day moving average today by 11 cents.
Earlier in the day I had actually bought a small spec position looking for funds to come and defend that price. We got stopped out for just a 3 to 4 cent loss.
At this point, every fund manager out there probably got […]
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October 31, 2013
Corn: CZ closed down 2 cents at $4.28 ¼, which is a new 3 year low settlement. New crop CZ 14 corn fell to a new life-of-contract low settlement at $4.69 ½. At 7:30 AM the […] |