Blog Archive

If you followed my suggestion on Oct 29th,  two days ago and got short the Dow futures at 15650,  you are looking at a 150 tick winner so far.
Make sure you put in a trailing buy stop.
This Market could turn on a dime and spike back up heading into the weekend.

Maintain the short position, but look at 15,175 as an ultimate target to cover and actually get long.

This is purely a technical trade off of this Weekly Trend line going back to December 2012.
Hope you have it on. 
I did some for some clients.  Some I missed because […]

1) funds are still long 70K estimated beans.  short 220K estimated corn.

Why when we get good exports did we see beans only rally a nickel.?  SX made it back to the 13.00 print. What a gift.  Just Tuesday we were down at 12.68, sweating out the longs who took beans after expiration.   I had been long, but got stopped out for a 7 cent loss vs.  a 30 cent loss. 

So.. I am selling rallies here in Jan beans.  In front of next Friday’s USDA report, I look for beans to head south again.  In Jan the recent low was 12.64.  We are […]

1) funds are still long 70K estimated beans.  short 220K estimated corn.

Why when we get good exports did we see beans only rally a nickel.?  SX made it back to the 13.00 print. What a gift.  Just Tuesday we were down at 12.68, sweating out the longs who took beans after expiration.   I had been long, but got stopped out for a 7 cent loss vs.  a 30 cent loss. 

So.. I am selling rallies here in Jan beans.  In front of next Friday’s USDA report, I look for beans to head south again.  In Jan the recent low was 12.64.  We are […]

Below is a weekly chart of the Dow December Contract.  As you can see there is a good long term bull t-line going back to Dec of 2012.  In September, we hugged it pretty well around the 14,700 and again in the last week of September, when 14,918 held. This set us up for a nasty head fake. The week after it tested that line and held,  we fell all the way down to 14650 on the government shut down freak-out., only to rebound and settle at 15,175.  Just a 500 point swing to squeeze out the weak longs who had been looking at this […]

December gold has given us a wild ride in the past 5 months, trading between 1430 and 1180, for 250 an ounce.  Spurred on by world events from Egypt, to Syria, to the political theater in Washington, DC, we’ve seen gold equally punish both bulls and bears whose timing was less than perfect.
Speaking from personal experience ,  we were stopped out of good short positions last time we were short at 1422, and then stopped out of longs from 1309 the week we had a panic flush down to 1251.  I wrote about these both times.
A lot of folks only talk about  […]

Today’s announcement that Saudi Arabia has severed diplomatic ties with the US due to  inaction on Syria.   This helped precipitate a 4 month low, with December crude trading at 96.16 today, which is a 4 month low and 4 dollars below the key psychological $100.00 barrel level. Typically oil above that level gets politicians wanting to tax oil companies and raise gas taxes.  Recent high was $110.00 a barrel,  coming in late August with the un-rest in Egypt which was a 5-year high going all the way back to September of 2008.  that was a contract high for Dec Crude, btw.
Flash back to the […]

Today’s announcement that Saudi Arabia has severed diplomatic ties with the US due to  inaction on Syria.   This helped precipitate a 4 month low, with December crude trading at 96.16 today, which is a 4 month low and 4 dollars below the key psychological $100.00 barrel level. Typically oil above that level gets politicians wanting to tax oil companies and raise gas taxes.  Recent high was $110.00 a barrel,  coming in late August with the un-rest in Egypt which was a 5-year high going all the way back to September of 2008.  that was a contract high for Dec Crude, btw.
Flash back to the […]

Watching the chatter class on cable, its easy to get caught up in their mindless ramblings.  Sell off -Terrible. Rally- Party hats and Champagne for all!  The repetition is sometimes mind numbing.  Bad news always gets more attention. In a country of 340Million people, it seems as though there are 339 million eager to be able to say “see, I told you so”,  when the market sells off.

I am a big fan of listening to both the conservative AM entertainers as well as the “progressive ” left wingers. Each one has their own perverse ideology.  It always boils down to blaming sell-off’s on “the […]

Chicago December wheat still has a sizable short position with managed futures. This goes hand in hand with a large short position in December Corn and an equally large long position in new crop Soybeans.

That being said, there are some trades setting up in the grains which should give good risk/reward parameters.
1) Sell Wheat against its 1-year old Bear Trend-line.  Look below: