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Blog Archive
Pre-Informa Bean’s rally then break 12 cents
High last night— 13. 01 1/2. I had orders working at 13.04 1/2 which did not get filled.
For those who scaled in sellers from 1299 however, you’ve gotten a little bump here as beans broke down to 1288. 600 bucks a contract. I’d cover 1/2 and ride the other half through the number which comes out in an hour.
If you are a hedger; There is no carry here for beans. No benefit to storing. Sell beans here and be happy. If you are a perma bull- look for a break to re-own those bushels with some cheap (sub 30 cent/bushel) March call spreads.
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Pre-Informa Bean's rally then break 12 cents
High last night— 13. 01 1/2. I had orders working at 13.04 1/2 which did not get filled.
For those who scaled in sellers from 1299 however, you’ve gotten a little bump here as beans broke down to 1288. 600 bucks a contract. I’d cover 1/2 and ride the other half through the number which comes out in an hour.
If you are a hedger; There is no carry here for beans. No benefit to storing. Sell beans here and be happy. If you are a perma bull- look for a break to re-own those bushels with some cheap (sub 30 cent/bushel) March call spreads.
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Beans setting up for a bull trap on this Chinese Rally
This rally in SX13 is one which should be sold. We are looking at rumors that China bought 3 MMT of beans here while the USDA was shut down. I believe that once those sales are confirmed, that will suck in weak longs to buy beans. That should be the top. That top should be sold.
I had thought we’d get to 12.96 or possibly even 13.18, based on widely followed Fibonacci’s. 13.36 would be the upper limit.
I don’t think we will get that high.
13.00 to 13.05 is an area I want to establish shorts.
Tomorrow Informa will come out with estimated […]
Volatility Courtesy of Washington DC
Dec Gold fell down to 1251 last night, only to rally back to 12.87 as I write this. Quite the chop fest.
Ditto for The Dow.
The Dow high at 15,265 the exact 62% Retracement would be at 15,273. 7 ticks from getting filled, we break 175 ticks. Very frustrating trade if you were trying to sell that Fibonacci.
With the Government shut-down unfolding and continuing trading now is not […]
1318 Trendline Intersection in December Gold
This is a good trend line giving us an upside target at 13.18. I have a small long spec at 1284 . If we settle above 13.20, I’ll add to this long.
Depending on what happens w/ the $USDX and the Dow, based on the theater in D.C. This could be a good short term spec. A lot of the gold bugs have been bloodied and have left the longs. Right about now might be a good time for a tasty rally that they all miss because […]
Dow recovers more that 50% and November Beans test Key Bull Support
SX , November beans are at a critical point as we head into the Ides of October. 1286 is 1/2 way back of this rally which began in August down at that panic low of 11.63. We then rallied in earnest, and the managed funds built their position into its current 100 to 140K contract position. At 5,000 bushels per contract, that’s a boatload of grain in anyone’s world. Roughly 500 to 700 million bushels of Soybeans. We tried 3 times to breach 14.00 and failed. We have returned to the 1/2 way point and are at a critical point in time.
We should have […]
Crystal Ball is Broken
The low held; who knew? The high so far overnight on news that a deal might be penned by Friday to raise the debt ceiling? 14862.
Today looks like it will be a “risk on day” as fears are abating about a default or a continued shut down.
Buy dips in the index. Look for a rally until the deal is penned, then most likely you will see a buy the rumor sell the fact move where we spike higher and then head lower.
As for the grains, 13.05 has been recent high/ resistance in November. Sell against that high any current longs. Take profits.
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As of 2PM, the Dow has held its 4-month low
14,651 was the low on August 28th Today’s low at 14,648 took it out by 3 ticks, and we have now rallied 123 points from that low, or $615 bucks per mini dow long. Right now we seem to be looking at trying to carve out a bottom. 15 trading days ago, we rallied on the resignation of Summers from running for the Fed. 15 days and we broke 1,000 pts or 6%. That hardly falls into the category of more than a blip, in the gran scheme of things.
To answer your question, No, I did not buy the low today. I didn’t even have […]
Trend Lines in Gold and Support being Tested in the Dow
August 28th high 1433. Sept 30 high 13.53.80. Yesterday’s high 1330.80.
Sell this T-line and hold on. Today we are 20 lower from that T-line.
As for the Dow indexes, There was no bounce at the 1/2 way point. See below.
Honestly, with the mess in Washington, with the lack of counter-trend trades, the lack of two sided volatility, I’d step aside, except for the extremes of the ranges on the chart. If this chart level (14,700) doesn’t hold, we could easily drop down to 14,400 which was […]